980
FXUS66 KSEW 280314
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
814 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Somewhat warmer conditions are expected Friday
followed by weak systems that will keep temperatures in check and
bring a slight chance of precipitation over the weekend. A
warming and drying trend is expected for the bulk of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...No major forecast updates
have been made this evening. There are some very light showers
persisting in the Cascades of King and Snohomish county, with
mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. The rest of the previous discussion
can be found below with an update to the aviation and marine
sections.

Shower activity will dissipate during the evening and overnight
hours and mostly dry conditions are expected Friday as weak,
transient ridging moves through the area. This will allow for
some breaks in the clouds on Friday and temperatures to warm back
into the upper 60s to low 70s. A very weak wave may bring a few
light showers to the northwest Olympic Peninsula and Cascades on
Saturday. This will be followed by yet another weak wave on
Sunday, resulting in slightly higher chances for light
precipitation. These systems will keep temperatures in check over
the weekend.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...By Monday a weak system
will be exiting to the east allowing ridging to begin to develop
next week. This is likely to lead to warming and drying conditions
through the week. At this time, the July 4th holiday looks
relatively quiet, weather-wise, with temperatures most likely in
the 70s. Confidence begins to wane in the details by later in the
week when the 10th-90th percentile spread increases from 5-10
degrees Thursday to 15-20+ degrees Friday and beyond. At this time
there does not appear to be a strong signal for significant
weather impacts through the forecast period.
-Wolcott-


&&

.AVIATION...Northwesterly flow aloft this evening and overnight
before turning more westerly Friday morning. Surface winds generally
light and variable although majority of obs as of 7 PM PDT
suggesting a northwest to westerly direction.

Largely VFR conditions over the CWA this evening although for many
terminals cloud bases appear to be on the low end of this
classification. As such, will not take much imagination, given the
abundant low level moisture, to see widespread MVFR conditions set
up tonight through at least Friday morning, as per inherited
forecast. Already starting to see this materialize, especially at
PAE and BFI. Spots more prone to lower cigs such as HQM and PWT may
see IFR conditions emerge at times overnight. Cigs still expected to
improve by late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon, with
widespread VFR conditions returning.

KSEA...Low end VFR conditions at the time of this writing with
expectation of MVFR conditions returning as early as 06Z tonight.
Will likely see cigs degrade further during the overnight hours, but
still remaining MVFR, even if on the low end of that. Cigs expected
to return to VFR after 18Z Friday. NE winds this evening 5-10 kts
with speeds easing by 06Z. NW winds 4-8 kts expected by late morning
and through the remainder of the TAF period.

18


&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow continues behind exiting frontal
system. Latest push through the Central/East Strait of Juan de Fuca
still meeting criteria at Race Rocks on the Canadian side...however
speeds have eased below criteria at surrounding obs and especially
in the East Entrance. With such a limited amount of time left, will
allow inherited headlines to expire tonight. For Friday and beyond,
winds generally benign. While there will be some pushes down the
Strait in the afternoon and evening hours, speeds expected to remain
below advisory criteria at this time.

Seas generally 4 to 6 ft for the near term, potentially building to
6 to 8 feet by the middle of next week.

18


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$