Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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107 FXUS64 KSHV 301752 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Bumped a few afternoon Max`s and upgraded some of the Heat Advisory to Excessive Heat Warning based on obs over the last hour. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Padded a few upper 90s up to the century mark along I-49 from Texarkana to Shreveport and Natchitoches. Humidity is just not scouring in the river valleys and some rain showers have spiked the dew points along our I-30 corridor. So with added room for the max, we have made room for higher heat indices as well. Where is that cold front? NW winds will veer to N/NE during the remainder of the day. Some of the NE winds are getting into the Little Rock vicinity now so in this sense, we are pooling some moisture as well. No other changes made to the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are developing ahead of the front over W AR and these will be moving south and backdooring with outflow to that NE direction. Updates are available. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The "cooler" air for portions of the area on Monday will begin to retreat on Tuesday and for sure by Wednesday with dangerous heat index values returning to the entire area. To be honest, the upper-level death ridge does not show any signs of letting up next week. So bottom line, it is going to be hot with heat products likely through the week. On top of this, precipitation chances seem slim for the area, with the best chances being across our far southern zones with any sea-breeze convection that develops. Long range guidance is indicating a pattern change through as we head into next weekend. All we can do with that information is hope though. /33/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Cumulus field currently in development may initially range from high-end MVFR to low-end VFR but will lift to VFR through the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms most likely from TXK to SHV to ELD and MLU through sunset. Any TSRA passage at these terminals could result in briefly erratic wind speeds and direction and as well as reduced vsbys. SCT-BKN ceilings may then develop Monday morning across all terminals, especially the northern and eastern terminals as a front approaches. Winds generally W/NW today 5-8kts, becoming light and variable overnight and shifting to the NE around 5kts Monday morning. Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 96 78 100 / 10 30 0 10 MLU 77 94 71 97 / 20 10 0 10 DEQ 73 92 70 96 / 10 10 0 0 TXK 77 95 74 100 / 20 20 0 0 ELD 73 92 68 97 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 78 97 78 99 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 78 96 76 99 / 10 30 0 10 LFK 77 96 76 98 / 10 40 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 059-070>073. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-018>022. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097- 112. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...23