849
FXUS62 KTAE 021030
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
630 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today will bring another wet day across a majority of the region as
the remnants of the frontal boundary that passed through the region
on Monday is expected to surge north through the morning and
afternoon hours today. This is due to winds becoming southerly
through the low levels as surface high pressure makes its way off
the Northeast coastline today. The frontal boundary is expected to
provide a focus for thunderstorms through the morning before the
seabreeze likely interacts with it during the afternoon hours. WPC
has issued a slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall
across portions of the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia, and a
marginal risk (Level 1 of 4) for the remainder of the area today.
This is primarily due to the high PWATS of 2-2.25 inches currently
being observed across the region, combined with the lingering
frontal boundary providing extra forcing for ascent across the
region. These showers and thunderstorms will likely be able to
produce quick instances of 3-5 inches locally, with widespread
forecast rainfall totals of 1-2 inches generally expected today. Dry
air still remains in place through the mid-levels, which is aiding
in DCAPE values approaching or nearly exceeding 1000 J/Kg. These
values of DCAPE combined with around 2000-2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE will
provide enough energy for strong wind gusts with the strongest
thunderstorms that develop today. Overall, with widespread showers
and thunderstorms forecast today, highs will generally remain in the
low 90s areawide today; however, with dewpoints remaining in the mid
to upper 70s, heat index values will once again be in the 108-110
range for portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and
portions of SE Alabama as well. This has prompted the issuance of a
heat advisory for much of these areas today. Low temperatures will
generally fall into the mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The front from Tuesday may still be lingering in the region
Wednesday, which could support scattered to widespread shower and
thunderstorm development before washing out. This will be the
beginning of the transition period from wetter weather to drier
weather. Thursday`s rain chances continue to trend ever so
slightly lower than Wednesday. Unfortunately, the moist airmass
will still be in place, which means we could still have some
locally heavy pockets of rain. Nuisance to isolated flash flooding
will be possible, especially for areas that are already well
saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

No major changes to the forecast as the message continues to be
hotter and slightly drier conditions for the long term. Upper
level ridging holds over us, which will help suppress thunderstorm
develop. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to
upper 90s through the period. Heat index values continue to range
from about 100-110 much of the time, though the max values have
peaked up to about 110-116 degrees. Lows remain sultry, in the mid
to upper 70s, and not providing any reprieve. With the upcoming
holiday weekend in store for many of us, now is a great time to
review your heat safety plans. Some pro-tips if you plan on
spending some time outdoors: wear sunscreen, drink plenty of
water, wear light and loose fitted clothing, take frequent breaks
if doing strenuous activities, go indoors to cool off. Don`t
forget you can help out by checking on the elderly, young
children, those sensitive to heat, and pets.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

MVFR to LIFR CIGs are being observed across all terminals
this morning. These restrictions look to continue through the
early morning hours before lifting to VFR conditions through the
late morning and afternoon hours. Another round of widespread
showers and thunderstorms look to develop in Apalachee Bay and
push north throughout the day today, which may cause brief
restrictions of MVFR to LIFR levels through the afternoon and
evening hours. These showers and thunderstorms should dissipate
shortly after sunset at all terminals Tuesday. IFR to LIFR CIGs
look to develop at DHN, ABY, and VLD once again Wednesday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

South to southwest winds are expected through much of the week.
Seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers
and storms are expected through today, with activity generally
greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal
land breeze circulation is at its peak. Conditions will favor
waterspouts this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

With deep tropical moisture lingering over the region for the next
several days, high chances for showers and thunderstorms for a
majority of the area are expected to continue. The high rain chances
combined with significant rainfall observed over the last several
days, will lead to limited fire weather concerns for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

One more day for the potential of locally heavy rainfall is
forecast; however, confidence was much lower in terms of issuing
or extending the Flood Watch. As a result, we opted to let the
original watch expire last night. Near term CAMs and ensembles do
suggest that there are chance some areas, areas including and east
of Grady County, GA east and from Leon and Wakulla County, FL,
could see an additional 3-5 inches of rain. But this would be
highly dependent on how showers and thunderstorms develop today.
Storm total rainfall for today is quite variable. For southeast
AL and areas west and along the Flint River in GA, totals will be
around 0.10-0.75". For areas east of the Flint, about 0.50-1.25"
of rain are forecast. The western FL Panhandle amounts range from
0.25-1.25, wettest south of I-10. And for the FL Big Bend amounts
could vary from 0.25-1.5", with locally higher amounts of 2-3"
possible. Precip chances slowly begin to wane Wednesday into
Thursday, as we transition from a wetter pattern to a more dry
one.

No riverine flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  75  92  76 /  90  30  60  20
Panama City   89  78  90  78 /  80  40  40  10
Dothan        91  74  92  75 /  70  30  50  20
Albany        89  73  91  75 /  70  40  50  20
Valdosta      91  75  92  75 /  80  50  70  30
Cross City    92  75  93  75 /  70  60  60  40
Apalachicola  87  79  88  78 /  90  30  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-
     114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ068-069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR