784
FXUS62 KTAE 031935
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
335 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level ridge remains entrenched across the deep south and
with it weak mid-level flow out of the north and northeast. With
low-level flow being weak as well, and the diffuse boundary from
this afternoon mostly gone by tomorrow, expect most thunderstorm
activity to be driven by the seabreeze, and any airmass storms
that form with sufficient heating of the day across our inland
zones. With the ridge still in place, we`ll see a slower start to
storms again on Thursday like we saw today, but the main
uncertainty forecast wise will be how warm we get before storms
fire off. This afternoon, extensive low level cumulus prevented
many locations from reaching heat advisory levels except in
isolated areas. For tomorrow, guidance is running a degree or two
warmer but a similar trend in convection is expected so whether we
hit heat advisory criteria tomorrow is a little more difficult to
ascertain but probabilities for reaching heat advisory levels do
appear higher.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Deep layer ridging is forecast to set up overhead and remain pretty
much in place throughout the next week or so. This will allow
temperatures to rise again into the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices in the 105-113 degree range in the afternoons. Several days
of heat advisories appear likely, particularly along and south of
the I-10 corridor. Low temperatures are forecast to remain in the
mid to upper 70s, which will not allow for much respite at all from
the daytime heat. Accumulation of many abnormally hot days and
nights will increase our overall susceptibility to heat illness and
exhaustion. Please take heat safety precautions seriously.

Despite the ridging, ample moisture overhead will still allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with the best chances
along the diurnal sea/land breeze circulation. A weak front is
forecast to approach the area on Saturday and could provide an
additional focus mechanism for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into Sunday. Severe weather appears less likely at this point, but
some storms could produce gusty winds. The primary threat with these
storms seems to be locally heavy rainfall with some isolated spots
of flooding possible.

Long-period swell from Hurricane Beryl is forecast to arrive Friday
and last into the weekend. This swell will likely cause extremely
dangerous rip currents and cause erosion along area beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon with
the only restrictions being occasional periods of MVFR/IFR in
thunderstorm activity that moves over area TAF sites. Storms will
generally be most prevalent from 18z-00z. After 00z with
conditions clearing, only aviation concerns through the overnight
hours could be IFR/LIFR ceilings developing across inland sites at
DHN/ABY, and patchy fog is possible at TLH/VLD/ECP overnight,
though confidence was not great enough to put in some TAFs. These
conditions, if they develop, should lift by 14/15z Thursday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the
week with seas around 1 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and storms are
expected through today and tomorrow, with activity generally
greatest during the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal
land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell from
Hurricane Beryl will arrive Friday and gradually subside over the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Moist conditions and high rain chances should continue to keep
most fire weather concerns low into the weekend. Conditions will
dry out some as rain chances drop slightly into the weekend, but
scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon. Only
fire concerns in the immediate term will be the potential for low
dispersions on Independence Day given weak low/mid-level flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area
through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers
and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not
expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be
possible across the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  94  77  95 /  30  50  10  50
Panama City   78  91  79  91 /  20  30  10  40
Dothan        75  94  76  94 /  30  40  10  50
Albany        76  94  76  94 /  30  60  10  50
Valdosta      75  95  76  94 /  40  60  10  50
Cross City    75  94  75  94 /  30  60  20  50
Apalachicola  79  90  79  90 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield