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861
FXUS61 KILN 160753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
353 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Low
pressure will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the
central Appalachians before weakening by mid week. This will
bring an increase in clouds and at least a chance of some rain,
mainly from northeast Kentucky into central Ohio beginning
Tuesday into Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid level ridge which has been entrenched from the Great Lakes
thru New England will shift slightly north as low pressure
moves northwest from the Carolina coast. Dry air will remain in
place today, with only some diurnal cumulus along with some high
level clouds ahead of the low.

Temperatures will not be quite as warm but still well above
normal. Expect highs to range from the mid 80s east to the upper
80s west - where clouds will be thickest.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Mid level ridge from the Great Lakes thru New England will
continue to shift to the north as low pressure tracks northwest
from the Carolina coast into the central Appalachians. Mid and
high level clouds will increase from the southeast overnight
ahead of this low. Low temperatures to range from the lower 50s
west to the upper 50s east.

Moisture will increase ahead of this low will a chance of rain
in the far east mainly Tuesday afternoon. Highs to range from
near 80 east to the lower 80s west.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weakening tropical cyclone moving from the Carolinas toward the Ohio
Valley will provide unsettled weather during the first portion of
the long term. At this point the model blend brings a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms to eastern sections of the FA
Wednesday through Thursday. System will be fighting a dry airmass in
place that may diminish coverage and intensity of the precipitation.
High pressure and dry weather are forecast to return for Friday
through Sunday.

High temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s on Wednesday will be
limited by clouds and possibly precip. Readings are expected to rise
in the low and mid 80s Thursday then to the mid and upper 80s Friday
through Sunday as sunshine returns behind the departing tropical
remnants.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface and high pressure aloft will stretch from the Great
Lakes thru New England. This will allow dry weather and VFR
conditions to persist thru the TAF forecast period. Expect only
a few fair weather cumulus clouds today with thin high level
clouds streaming in from the east late in the day into tonight.

Light east winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
before diminishing to less than 10 knots tonight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR