-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
845
FXUS61 KGYX 261014
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
614 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Any light showers in the north will end early this morning.
Today will be dry and continued very warm as high pressure
builds in briefly. Low pressure will bring another round of
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight with less warm
and drier air arriving for the remainder of the work week.
Another front arrives this weekend with another chance for
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds in for early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
610 AM Update...Only change to the going forecast was to added
slight chance PoPs for this afternoon based on latest CAMs and
latest radar loops across upstate NY.

Previously...

A weak short wave trough with attendant WAA advection continues
to move across our forecast area as of 0630z this morning.
Forcing is weak, but there are some light showers, mainly the
northern half of the CWA, that will move out early this morning.

The departure of the short wave trough this morning will yield
at least partly sunny skies in its wake along with descending
air and very warm to hot conditions. The lack of forcing for
ascent and decreasing dewpoint values this afternoon should
inhibit thunderstorm development and therefore leaving most of
the region dry. However, there still remains an outside shot of
a brief shower or thunderstorm this afternoon on the coastal
plain where SFC convergence will be present along stalled SFC
trough.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Another short wave trough will approach quickly this evening
with many CAMs showing a thunderstorm complex moving eastward
across PA and the southern tier of NY late in the afternoon,
which is forecast to continue eastward along or near stalled SFC
trough. The vast majority of CAMs keep any strong thunderstorms
to our south though the evening hours as the stalled boundary
should remain just south of NH. However, we do expect
categorical rains overnight with a slight chance of thunder as
the approaching short wave trough amplifies and moves on
through. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms with heavy downpours
and a one or two instances of gusty winds. Overall, the trend
in consensus QPF over the last several runs has been down, as it
appears that the convective complex will largely remain to the
south of our CWA.

Any showers move offshore by daybreak Thursday. This will allow
for a dry and cooler day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...

High pressure builds across New England through Friday, then
shifts east on Saturday. Another cold front crosses through New
England Saturday night, with the upper level crossing through on
Sunday. A large high pressure center builds in from the west
early next week.

Details...

Conditions dry out by Friday as high pressure noses in from the
southwest. Highs look seasonable in the 70s to low 80s during
the day, with lows on the cooler side in the dry airmass, with
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Moisture begins to return and
temps moderate going into Saturday as the high moves offshore
and winds turn more southwesterly.

Showers and storms approach western areas by late in the day on
Saturday as the front approaches. Saturday night looks mostly
wet and thundery as a deepening area of low pressure moves
along the passing front. The upper level low behind the front
likely lingers into Sunday, enhancing the chance for afternoon
showers and storms. A much more expansive high pressure center
builds in from the west, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass
for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR is expected through the sunset today but a
fast moving, but potent low will quickly cross south of the the
area tonight bringing terminals to IFR by around midnight
through early Thursday morning. VFR returns for the bulk of
Thursday.

Long Term...VFR returns for Friday and Saturday, with nighttime
valley fog possible Thursday night and Friday night. Showers
and some storms are likely Saturday night with MVFR to IFR
ceilings likely. Conditions improve on Sunday, but brief
afternoon showers and MVFR ceilings are possible Sunday
afternoon. Conditions then improve for Sunday night and early
next week, with mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A few SCA gusts and seas around 5 feet are possible
today but inversion should keep widespread and long-lived SCA
conditions at bay.

Long Term...A cold front clears the waters on Thursday, with
high pressure building in for Friday. A cold front approaches on
Saturday, with SCA conditions possible in freshening
southwesterly winds ahead of the front. High pressure then
builds across the waters early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Clair/Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...