Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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485 FXUS65 KABQ 211807 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1207 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An upper level disturbance will move out of the Great Basin and into the Rockies today while rich moisture remains in place over New Mexico. This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across northern and central areas of the state today and well into the evening. Several areas could observe heavy downpours, and a few strong to severe storms are also possible, especially in northwestern New Mexico where large hail and damaging winds could occur. Temperatures today will be cooler than normal for late June, running in the 70s and 80s in most locations. Showers and thunderstorms will not be as numerous on Saturday and Sunday, but there is still the potential for isolated to scattered activity that could produce locally heavy rainfall under slower moving storms. Through the weekend and the first part of next week, temperatures will rise, turning hot in many lower elevation locations while isolated to scattered showers and storms redevelop daily over the mountains and nearby areas. Rain chances will increase again Wednesday and Thursday of next week when more moisture will arrive from the east. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today and tonight, a shortwave trough will cross the northern and central Rockies drawing rich subtropical moisture northward over the forecast area. By this afternoon precipitable water values are forecast to vary around 1.25-1.60 inches, or from 150-250 percent of normal. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and this evening, then the focus will be west of the central mountain chain after midnight. With the trough passing to our north, shear and instability profiles look sufficient for severe thunderstorms to develop over northwest and west central areas, where large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest threat. Isolated tornados cannot be ruled out, either. Given how much antecedent moisture has improved over the last 48 hours, and some very sensitive locations due to recent flash flooding and recent burn scars, will issue a Flash Flood Watch for northwest and west central areas for this afternoon and tonight, as well as for the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountain Burn Scars. On Saturday, drier air will begin to filter over northwest areas from the northwest in the wake of the aforementioned upper level trough. However, PWATs across the forecast area are forecast to remain around 150-250 percent of normal. A high pressure system over the Louisiana area will extend a ridge axis westward across TX and southern NM, preventing a further influx of moisture and introducing enough of a cap to induce a downtick in thunderstorm coverage. Scattered thunderstorms should favor the area from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward on Saturday, with more numerous cells over west central and southwest areas. Depending on the antecedent moisture and sensitive spots from today`s storms, another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for Saturday. After high temperatures varying from near to 18 degrees below 1991-2020 averages today, readings will rebound a few to several degrees in most places on Saturday while remaining on the cool side. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The upper high will remain outstretched across the southern states on Sunday with heights pushing upwards of 592 to 594 decameters at 500 mb. This will keep temperatures warming, almost reaching normalcy in all zones Sunday afternoon. Light steering flow aloft will likely distribute the deepest moisture over the southwestern mountains to the northeastern corner of NM, and convective initiation will mimic climatology albeit a bit earlier than normal. Storm coverage will be a bit subdued, but the slow storm motion is always concerning for any single strong storm capable of producing a heavy downpour. Temperatures will keep escalating into Monday and Tuesday as the high slowly consolidates, first over southern AZ, NM and TX on Monday and then closer to the AZ-NM border on Tuesday. Temperatures would peak on Tuesday with many lower elevation areas reaching the upper 90s and triple digits, introducing heat illness concerns. Moisture will get recycled, but overall storm coverage would likely decrease a bit more each day with isolated to scattered cells favoring the higher terrain of NM and specifically the southwestern zones. A shortwave trough moving through the southern plains and eventually the lower MS valley Tuesday and Tuesday night will send a moist surface boundary westward into NM. While surface dewpoints will not have declined too much, this surface boundary will recharge and reinforce higher dewpoints into the area as the upper high weakens a bit. This will moderate the temperatures some while fueling more shower and storm development. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A moist sub-tropical airmass and its interaction with a shortwave across the northwest will create numerous showers and storms across the area today through the overnight hours. At 18Z, satellite shows a shield of mid-clouds across the majority of the region, with only a small window of clearing across the northwest. Showers are increasing in coverage across the eastern and south-central portions of the area as moisture streams in from the south. These showers will grow up into storms within the next few hours as the atmosphere destabilizes. Several strong to severe storms are possible across the western portion of the forecast area mid- afternoon through the evening, with wind gusts up to 50KT and large hail both potentially impacting KFMN and KGUP. Training storms are expected to congeal together into a line as it moves eastward towards the Rio Grande Valley late this evening. Showers with embedded storms are expected to continue through as late as 15Z in central and western NM. MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail across most of the area through the TAF period, although brief IFR conditions are possible under heavier storms, which will be most likely in the western portion of the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 With deep Gulf moisture in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will return today and Saturday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall. Winds will be weaker in many places today, except for breezy to windy conditions east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A high pressure system aloft will move over the forecast area from the east Sunday through mid week, and moisture will recycle with daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring central and western areas through Tuesday. Wetting footprints will shrink in size through this period, and high temperatures will climb above 1991-2020 averages areawide. Tuesday night into Wednesday a moist backdoor front is forecast to push into the area increasing thunderstorm coverage and wetness for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 61 88 60 / 90 70 10 0 Dulce........................... 81 48 85 48 / 70 90 20 0 Cuba............................ 78 55 82 57 / 60 80 40 10 Gallup.......................... 88 52 86 54 / 60 70 40 20 El Morro........................ 82 56 81 56 / 70 80 70 30 Grants.......................... 83 53 85 55 / 70 70 70 20 Quemado......................... 83 59 84 57 / 50 70 80 50 Magdalena....................... 76 61 83 63 / 50 50 70 40 Datil........................... 75 59 80 59 / 50 50 80 40 Reserve......................... 86 55 88 54 / 40 40 80 50 Glenwood........................ 88 69 93 66 / 30 40 70 40 Chama........................... 75 47 80 48 / 60 90 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 75 60 82 64 / 60 80 40 10 Pecos........................... 72 57 82 59 / 80 60 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 48 80 50 / 50 60 30 10 Red River....................... 68 48 73 45 / 40 50 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 71 45 76 43 / 50 50 30 10 Taos............................ 78 54 84 54 / 40 60 20 10 Mora............................ 74 51 82 52 / 80 50 40 10 Espanola........................ 83 60 90 62 / 50 70 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 76 59 83 63 / 70 70 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 60 86 61 / 70 70 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 65 89 67 / 50 70 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 64 90 69 / 20 60 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 64 92 62 / 20 60 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 66 90 69 / 20 70 30 20 Belen........................... 86 63 92 65 / 20 60 40 30 Bernalillo...................... 85 65 91 67 / 20 70 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 86 61 92 61 / 20 60 40 20 Corrales........................ 85 64 92 66 / 20 70 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 85 64 92 63 / 20 60 40 20 Placitas........................ 81 64 88 66 / 50 70 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 84 65 90 68 / 20 70 30 10 Socorro......................... 86 67 93 70 / 50 50 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 59 82 63 / 60 60 40 20 Tijeras......................... 77 61 85 64 / 60 60 40 20 Edgewood........................ 76 57 85 61 / 70 50 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 55 87 58 / 70 50 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 71 55 81 58 / 80 50 30 20 Mountainair..................... 75 58 84 61 / 70 40 40 30 Gran Quivira.................... 76 58 85 62 / 70 40 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 78 63 88 69 / 80 30 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 70 56 80 56 / 90 30 40 20 Capulin......................... 75 56 83 56 / 40 20 20 10 Raton........................... 79 57 87 57 / 40 20 20 10 Springer........................ 80 59 89 59 / 60 20 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 70 56 82 57 / 80 50 30 20 Clayton......................... 80 66 90 64 / 20 20 10 10 Roy............................. 74 61 87 62 / 70 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 81 66 93 66 / 60 20 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 75 62 89 64 / 70 20 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 81 66 93 67 / 40 20 5 20 Clovis.......................... 81 64 91 66 / 40 20 0 10 Portales........................ 83 64 93 67 / 40 20 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 80 65 92 67 / 50 20 5 10 Roswell......................... 88 69 95 71 / 50 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 80 60 89 64 / 80 20 30 10 Elk............................. 79 56 88 60 / 80 20 30 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>207-210-211-217. Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16