467
FXUS63 KAPX 270702
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny skies, seasonably cool temperatures today and tonight.

- Scattered showers and storms expected Friday night through
  Saturday.

- Additional showers and storms remain possible next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing will continue to progress from the Great Lakes over the
northeast CONUS as ridging slides across the northern Great Plains
and upper Midwest. Subsidence provided aloft at the inflection point
of these features will build surface high pressure directly overhead
today, eventually centering itself just east of the region by Friday
morning.

Forecast Details:

Sunny skies, seasonably cool temps today and tonight --
Aforementioned high pressure building overhead will keep rain
chances at bay today as sunny skies are in store for northern
Michigan. Light northwest winds will be in place with seasonably
cool temperatures today. Highs look to only warm into the mid 60s to
low 70s for most areas this afternoon, which would be 5-10 degrees
below normal for the end of June. Clear skies and weak/calm winds
will allow for another night of efficient radiational cooling as
overnight lows are expected to dip into the mid 40s to upper 50s
again tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Midlevel ridging over the western two thirds of the CONUS will
continue the pattern of dry and quiet weather across the Upper
Midwest for the next couple days. Northwest flow of a cooler
Canadian air mass moving across Lake Superior will keep temperatures
slightly below average for late June across Michigan.

Aformentioned ridging is expected to remain in place at the start of
the long term period. Upstream troughing currently over the Pacific
northwest will make its way to the CWA Friday night and return
showers and storms to Northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Scattered showers and storms expected Friday night through
 Saturday: Aformentioned midlevel troughing with weak surface
 level low pressure will deliver scattered showers and storms to
 the CWA this weekend. Between weak forcing, low shear and CAPE
 values, little convection is supported but enough energy to
 produce rubles of thunder is definitely expected by Saturday.
 Biggest story for this event will be a good soaking of rainfall
 for most parts of the CWA. Latest ensembles are hinting at a
 general half inch across northern lower by Saturday afternoon
 while areas of eastern upper could see rainfall totals of an
 inch or more. WPC keeps the western half of the state under a
 marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but rainfall totals are
 expected to remain much lower than flash flood guidance as a
 weak convective environment will struggle to produce efficient
 showers.

-Additional showers and storms remain possible next week: The
 second half of the long term period is expected to repeat the
 first half as midlevel ridging over the western half of the
 CONUS returns surface high pressure this Sunday and Monday.
 Next chance of showers returns around the Tuesday timeframe as
 another low amplitude trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska
 will progress to the Great Lakes region. Still a bit too early
 to advertise rainfall amounts or thunderstorm strength at this
 time but more details will rise with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Large area of high pressure will continue to build into the
Western Great Lakes tonight...with the high center holding over
Michigan on Thursday. Residual diurnally-enhanced low clouds
will diminish/dissipate this evening...leaving solid VFR
conditions at all Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan TAF
sites thru Thursday. N/NW surface winds at 10 to 20 kts this
evening will diminish to AOB 10 kts overnight thru Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR