259
FXUS61 KBGM 171034
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
634 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions expected through the week, with the
worst conditions arriving Tuesday and persisting with little
relief through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
340 AM Update...

An upper-level ridge continues to slowly move over the region,
and temperatures will begin to ramp up Monday, with high
temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will
continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low to mid 90s, with
heat indices of 95 to 100. A Heat Advisory will be in effect
Noon Tuesday for portions of Central NY and NE PA, and will last
through Thursday evening. With overnight temperatures not
dipping much past 70 degrees, there won`t be much relief from
the hot and humid conditions.

One of the challenges for this forecast will be chances for
thunderstorms from perturbations riding on top of the ridge.
Chances for afternoon into late evening thunderstorms Tuesday
will be dependent on how strong the ridge is, and if it
positions itself in a way where these perturbations advect into
our area. Currently, there are only a few guidance solutions
that depict thunderstorm initiation for Tuesday late afternoon
into the evening, so there is a possibility for storms for
Central NY, mainly west of I-81. We`ll keep monitoring near-term
guidance for changes in solutions and chances for storm
initiation Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM Update...

Heat dome remains overhead through the period. Overnight lows
will struggle to dip below 70 most places. High pressure will
dip a bit further south on Wednesday and this will allow flow to
become more out of the west-northwest and increase potential for
isolated thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night as our area will fall a bit closer to the
periphery of the high pressure system. Instability will likely
peak above 2000 J/kg during the daytime hours, and although
there will be some CIN, models are indicating potential for weak
perturbations within the flow that could be enough to break the
cap. The heat will still be an issue Wednesday with heat index
values near 100 or even above in urban areas. However,
thunderstorms may provide some brief relief where they occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
410 AM Update...

Thursday will be another hot day with most of the area hitting
near 100 heat index once again. Thursday could be the hottest
day of the week, but this will be dependent on afternoon
convection again. 500mb heights look like they finally begin to
fall Friday into Saturday which will lead to a slow cooling
trend through the weekend. While 80s will be slowly sprinkled in
throughout the region, some locations may see highs in the 90s
all the way through Saturday. This is one area where models
diverge as some keep a broader ridge over the region where as
others have a broad trough for the weekend. A ridge would keep
heat around whereas a trough would bring much needed relief.
That trough or stacked low, in some model solutions, moves
across the Great Lakes and drags a cold front through the area
towards the end of the period on Sunday. This will be the
transition out of the heat, but also bring scattered to
widespread thunderstorms to the region. Most of the models have
this trough coming through, it is just the timing that is not in
agreement at this time. Some guidance hold off with the trough
arriving on Monday and keeping the heat in place right through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the period at all terminals.
SSW winds pick up later in the afternoon, likely below 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Friday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly
in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ009-015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ016-
     017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...KL