550
FXUS61 KBGM 141812
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
212 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and
strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main
threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like
weather this weekend. Next week will be hot and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Beyond this is
drier stable air ahead of the cold front. Showers in NEPA and
the western Catskills don`t have much to work with. The showers
remain low topped and mostly light. The initial trough should
slow. The best chance of thunderstorms remain in NEPA and
Sullivan County PA. In CNY convection could be isolated at best.
Lowered pops and dewpoints here.

930 am update...

Update to the hourly temperatures which are cooler with a band
of clouds across the area with a prefrontal surface trough. Some
showers are ahead of this. The cold front is still north of our
area over Lake Ontario. Ahead of this is some clearing which
will help to create some instability. Still expecting convection
to develop midday across the twin tiers. This will strengthen as
it moves southeast into a moister air mass. Cams are not
excited.

330 AM Update...

A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain
showers and chances for strong to severe storms. As this front
moves through our area, chances for showers and storms begin in
Central NY between late morning and early afternoon, and will
move south and east through the day. Guidance has been
progressing and pushing the best chances for developing severe storms
more south and east, where NE PA and the Catskills will be the
most likely locations to see possible severe storm development
in the late afternoon and into the evening hours, with the main
threat bring strong to damaging winds.

Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being
slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today
and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front
that will be passing through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
210 PM Update:

High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny on
Sunday. With the building ridge still located west of the
region, one last day with temperatures near-normal is expected
before the heat builds in for the remainder of the week. Highs
are expected to be in the lower 70s to near 80. Then mostly
clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. These will be the coolest lows our region will have
for the remainder of the week.

A strengthening ridge moves overhead on Monday, which will bring
much warmer temperatures. Widespread highs in the 80s are
expected, with lower 90s in the valleys. Dew points will be on
the rise too (into the 60s). Otherwise, mainly dry conditions
are expected, although cannot rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes Region in the afternoon.
Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s is
expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM Update:

In terms of precipitation, the long term period will be fairly
quiet. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out each day due to daytime heating, but with the ridge
dominating, any organized shower or thunderstorm activity is
very unlikely. By the end of the week (Friday), a shortwave
riding along the edge of the ridge may bring some more organized
shower and thunderstorm activity, although even this is far from
a certainty.

The main story for the long term period will be the prolonged
heat. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s (and even
some upper 90s) is expected each day Tuesday through Friday. Dew
points will also be quite high; mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will result in heat indices well into the 90s, and
likely exceeding 100 degrees in the valleys. Heat headlines will
likely be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a cold front moves through today, guidance is showing more
and more of a south and eastward trend for storm initiation.
There`ll be a few scattered rain showers this morning through
the early afternoon before storm begin to initiate after 18Z.
The difficultly with this forecast is how far south and east
will these storms pop up. We`ve included the possibility of
vicinity storms after 18Z through 00Z for the majority of
terminals since they all have a chance for storms in the
afternoon, with RME and SYR having the least likely chance of
seeing a storm. We`ll continue to monitor throughout the
morning.

Outlook...

Friday night...Ceilings becoming VFR. Areas of dense valley fog
restrictions possible late.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC
NEAR TERM...KL/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL/TAC