866
FXUS61 KBUF 241504
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1104 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers across areas south and east of Lake Ontario will gradually
diminish in coverage this afternoon. Cooler and less humid air will
continue to spread into the area making for a much more comfortable
start to the new work week. Warm and humid conditions will return
Tuesday and especially Wednesday when a pair of frontal passages
support showers and potentially strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent mid- level shortwave crossing over the province of
Ontario, will support wrap around moisture across the area this
afternoon. This will support showers across the area south of
Lake Ontario with better coverage east of Lake Ontario. Also
this afternoon, diurnal effects will support an isolated
thunderstorm or two, particularly east of the Genesee Valley.

Additionally today, gusty northwest winds will continue due to the
passage of the shortwave trough before weakening by this evening.
Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler and less humid
conditions. Highs today will range in the low to mid 70s.

Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the lower Great
Lakes this evening through tonight, causing the showers to exit the
North Country. Clear skies and light winds will support ample
radiational cooling to occur and support lows to range in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The brief cool down ends Tuesday with a return to summer warmth
and humidity. A warm front is advertised to work through the
region Tuesday afternoon and evening. While coverage will
`likely` be limited...we still can`t rule out a shower or
isolated thunderstorm. A better chance of showers and
thunderstorms looks to arrives Wednesday with the cold front.
Right now...guidance focuses storm activity well inland from the
lakes across the S. Tier, Finger Lakes region, and ENE into
North Central NY. Otherwise...highs both days will be found in
the 80s with dwpts climbing well into the 60s.

Behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday night a much cooler and
drier airmass will flood into the Lower Lakes by Thursday. Highs on
Thursday will only be in the upper 60s across the higher terrain to
low/mid 70s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slides overhead Thursday night and then moves off to
our east on Friday. Return flow on the western peripheral of the
ridge will once again pump in a much warmer airmass as we head into
the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
increase beginning Friday night with the warm front, and then again
with the cold front on Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, then even warm Saturday with solid 80s to near 90F
in spots.

A cool down begins to take place behind the cold front Saturday
night but we still could see some showers on Sunday. Dry weather
returns areawide by Monday as an expansive surface high builds into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central
New York for the latter part of the work week. This should
result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to
mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s
will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will
return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal
passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend
days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers are currently spread across the areas south of
Lake Ontario, with fuller shower coverage across the areas east of
Lake Ontario. Overall, a conglomeration of flight conditions are
across the area, mainly due to CIGS averaging between 1500 and 2000
feet this morning. The lower CIGS will correlate with the shower
activity.

Showers will continue today, mainly from the Finger Lakes eastward
through the early afternoon. Additionally, a thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially across the North Country. This being said,
CIGS today will gradually improve to VFR as showers pull east out of
the area by this evening.

High pressure will spread east into the lower Great Lakes this
evening, causing clouds to clear out and VFR conditions to persist.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories include all of the Lake Ontario nearshore
waters due to northwesterly flow through much of today. Winds and
waves will begin to subside this evening as high pressure moves into
the Ohio Valley today through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/TMA