748
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure over the area this morning will move off the
coast this afternoon. Moisture will slowly increase across the area
over the next few days. This will lead to isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. A
cold front will approach the region late next week leading to
possibly more organized thunderstorms by Thursday. Temperatures
should rise to near normal values over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After starting the day on the cooler side with lows in the low 50s,
temperatures have already risen into the low to mid 70s across the
region. Scattered to broken mainly thin cirrus area streaming across
the area from the west ahead of an area of convection along the
AL/GA state line. Sharp ridging aloft will continue to linger across
the eastern US throughout the day today, with an associated surface
high pressure center sagging southeast offshore. This should
generally keep the aforementioned precip off to our west until late
in the period. Winds gradually turn out of the southeast this
afternoon with the high shifting, which will slowly begin to
moderate low level moisture and increase dewpoints. But overall, a
calm weather day is expected with some afternoon cumulus and light
winds with highs in the mid 80`s. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer
(by about 10 degree compared to last night) thanks to the moisture
return and increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system.
Therefore expect lows in the 60`s in most spots as PWAT`s increase
to 1"-1.25" by early Sunday morning. We`ll also keep an eye out for
some isolated light showers possible particularly across the western
Midlands and CSRA before 7 am Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...Upper level trough will move into the
eastern CONUS. The surface and upper ridge will be well
offshore. This will result in southwest flow aloft and
increasing moisture across the area. The models increase
precipitable water across the area to around 1.75 inches.
Instability appears weak with the ensembles CAPE > 500 J/kg
quite low across the area. Mid level lapse rates will be weak
with possibly considerable mid level cloudiness. Temperatures
still a little below normal in the low to mid 80s. Models
suggest a short wave will move through the region in the
afternoon but the stronger dynamics remain to the north across
NC and the Mid Atlantic region. The CAMS suggest limited
coverage mainly focused in the CSRA and SC Piedmont early in the
afternoon where the moisture flux will be focused. Convection
should diminish early in the evening although weak short wave
energy moving through the eastern trough may trigger isolated
showers into the overnight mainly across the northern Midlands.

Monday and Monday night...Northwest flow aloft on Monday with
the upper trough axis offshore. Short wave ridging may result in
mid level capping. but lapse rates may be a bit steeper. Models
indicate a little more instability but short wave ridging may
result in mid level capping. Higher precipitable water values
are in the coastal plain. Lack of trigger suggests widely
scattered showers or thunderstorms, possibly focused in the east
and mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
back to around 90 degrees for high temps with less cloudiness
and warm advection. Low temperatures at or above normal in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Little change in the air mass Tuesday, the upper flow appears more
zonal with a flat upper ridge over the area. This is evident in
both the deterministic and ensemble models. Short waves appear
upstream near the central Mississippi Valley. the air mass does
appear to be a little more unstable as precipitable water again
increases, but expect some capping. Any Convection in the
afternoon should be widely scattered with trigger lacking. Temps
continue to warm.

The ensembles suggest more convective coverage by mid to late week
as a anomalously deep upper low moves from the northern Plains
into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move toward the region
Thursday and pass southeast of the area sometime Friday based
on latest ensembles. Ensembles also indicate stronger
instability and deep layer shear ahead of the front by Thursday.
So, scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnally
driven. Stronger storms possible Thursday as the front
approaches. Temperatures near normal until frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Winds will gradually shift out of the southeast this morning, with
some gusts 10-12 knots possible this afternoon. A summer-like 5-6kft
MSL scattered cumulus field is expected this afternoon thanks to
moisture return. Winds weaken overnight with some mid-level clouds
increasing. Rain chances start to increase late in the TAF period,
but confidence is still too low in timing and coverage for any
mention at the terminals yet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$