165
ACUS02 KWNS 170600
SWODY2
SPC AC 170558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts
of Nebraska and Kansas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on
Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas
and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite
the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt
will exist as far south as KS.

At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into
northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending
southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS.

A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with
the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during
the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will
develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger
instability remaining offshore the TX Coast.

...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS...
Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains
trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely
remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will
develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000
J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but
a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail
over parts of northern MN/WI.

By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the
front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind.
Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line
segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur
as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level
shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple
tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes
surface based.

..Jewell.. 06/17/2024

$$