143
ACUS02 KWNS 140453
SWODY2
SPC AC 140451

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN
IOWA...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid
Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana
into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary
concerns.

...Synopsis...
A mean upper ridge will exist over the Southeast CONUS on Saturday,
with a broad but strong upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into
the northern Rockies/Plains. Between these large-scale features,
embedded disturbances associated with ongoing storms will affect
parts of the Mid MS Valley during the day, moving toward the Upper
Great Lakes by Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across MT and WY and
into the western Dakotas, providing a focus for afternoon/evening
storms. South of this area, a warm front will lift across MO, IA,
and eastern NE, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely along this
boundary. The stronger instability in this region may favor large
hail, areas of wind damage or a brief tornado. Isolated storms
capable of locally gusts winds or marginal hail may extend as far
south as western TX within the diurnal surface trough.

...Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI...
Areas of thunderstorms appear probable early on Saturday from parts
of SD into northern MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection and in
association with the midlevel, convectively enhanced shortwave
trough. The severe risk with this activity will be low, with perhaps
small hail or gusty winds and likely weakening trend in this regime.

This progressive wave will help push the warm front northward into
IA through 00Z and into southern MN and western WI late. Just behind
this wave, a plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast across
KS, nosing into southeast NE and perhaps southwest IA by 00Z. The
result may be a small-scale area of favorable instability and shear
where the warmer air interacts with the warm front, and isolated
supercells cannot be ruled out by late afternoon and into the
evening from eastern NE into IA. Marginal, elevated hail may extend
northeastward into MN/WI overnight with the aid of a 50 kt low-level
jet.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong height falls and a cold front will arrive into eastern MT
during the late afternoon, supporting scattered storms. Lengthening
hodographs along with the favorable large-scale lift should favor a
zone of concentrated strong to severe storms by early evening from
northeast MT into western ND. Cells capable of hail may occur
initially, with increasing linear mode into bows with wind potential
as the cold front surges late.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

$$