925
FXUS64 KEWX 241120
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper level ridge centered over and northwest of the area will
continue to produce for most locations a dry forecast through the
short term. Beneath the ridge is a pool of elevated moisture across
the Coastal Plains and there is a 10-20% chance of stray to isolated
tropical showers and thunderstorms in forecast this afternoon across
this area. A few CAMs bring stray showers near the San Antonio metro
area early in the evening. Activity should dissipate after sunset.
Again, most locations will stay dry.

Otherwise warm and humid conditions. This afternoon, some isolated
spots in the Coastal Plains and near the I-35 corridor could see
peak heat index values of around 105-108 degrees. We will issue a
Special Weather Statement for this. Heat index values and the heat
risk increase slightly Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Typical summer pattern over South Central Texas mid week through
next weekend and beyond. Subtropical Ridge remains centered near or
over our area. Subsidence under the Ridge and a seasonally moist
airmass yield no rain over most areas. Except, the seabreeze may
provide enough forcing to overcome the subsidence to generate a
shower or thunderstorm or two near the Coastal Plains on most
afternoons. Nearly seasonally hot temperatures prevail. Dewpoints
may not mix as efficiently resulting in elevated heat indices. Thus,
Heat Advisories are possible each day for parts of South Central
mainly along and southeast of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Stratus was producing a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings mainly along and
west of the I-35 corridor. The stratus is expected to scatter out
14Z-16Z. A 10-20% chance of isolated SHRA/TSRA activity is forecast
in the afternoon across the Coastal Plains. A few convective
allowing models bring this isolated activity toward the SAT area
around 00Z. Confidence and coverage is low, and therefore have
excluded mention in the SAT/SSF TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  77  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  77  96  77 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  77  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  81 101  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  75  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  77  93  77 /  10   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  78  96  78 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  78  97  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76