114
FXUS64 KEWX 201833
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A 591 dm ridge remains centered over northeastern Mexico and south
Texas early this afternoon. Despite its presence, we`ve managed to
see a few isolated showers pop up once again under broad east-
southeasterly surface flow. These showers are primarily daytime
heating driven and won`t last much beyond the 6 pm hour as loss of
solar heating commences. Highs will once again climb into the mid to
upper 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 103-107 in some spots
today. More of the same can be expected on Saturday with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Showers look less likely Saturday as the high
moves pretty much right over the top of us. Not much else meaningful
to mention in the short term. Muggy and hot conditions are expected
to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Models remain in good to excellent agreement with a longwave trough
in the western U.S. suppressing the upper level ridge over Texas
this coming week. Besides general 500 mb height falls, the lower
levels will change as shortwave troughs passing through the central
and northern U.S. will result in a cold front progressing south, and
progressively weakening, with time. The front will be like shallow
boundary and likely stall just north of our area, but act as a focus
for storms there, with outflow boundaries to increasing low-level
convergence and lift over our area, while a shortwave trough moves
through at mid-week to provide mid and upper level lift.

The sensible weather will be an increase in POPs first in the far
northwest on Sunday evening, then spreading east into the Edwards
Plateau and western Hill Country on Monday, then finally south and
east across the entire area Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening. But don`t get your hopes up too high for rain, as chances
max out around 20-30 percent and rainfall will be spotty and
generally light, with most locations receiving 1/10 inch or less, and
only a lucky few receiving 1/4 inch.

Temperatures will be near normal (upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
and mid 60s to lower 70s for lows) throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Wash, rinse, repeat. Basically a carbon copy of the past couple of
mornings with MVFR ceilings developing around 09Z at SAT and SSF and
around 12Z at DRT. We should see rapid improvement after 15-17Z at
all sites, with AUS looking to remain VFR at this time. Winds will
generally be out of the ESE at 5-10 kts but could be a bit stronger
at DRT, upwards of 10-15 kts after 17Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  98  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  96  78  95 /  10  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  96  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  94  72  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  95  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  95  74  94 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  75  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Zeitler
Aviation...MMM