Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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343 FXUS64 KEWX 141718 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Upper level ridging builds in from the west today with this feature remaining over the area through Saturday. Dry weather is expected with some areas of low cloud cover each morning becoming more scattered during the afternoons. Afternoon highs today and Saturday are generally in the 90s everywhere except along the Rio Grande and over the Rio Grande Plains where triple digit temperatures are forecast. Afternoon dewpoints fall into the upper 50s and 60s each day which should keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria. Overall, quiet and warm in the short term period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The Subtropical Ridge centers over the Southeastern States on Sunday and remains there early next week. A plume of tropical moisture approaches the Texas coast on Sunday allowing for a few showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Sunday afternoon. The plume works its way farther inland early next week with showers and thunderstorms spreading to the I-35 corridor by Tuesday. The Ridge then builds back over Texas mid to late week forcing the plume toward the west with showers and thunderstorms spreading to the Rio Grande on Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to show potential for development of a tropical system with NHC indicating a 40% chance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models maintain consensus on a westward movement into and across Mexico. This would allow for some enhancement in rainfall especially over the Coastal Plains to the southern Rio Grande Plains. Although, direct wind impacts are currently expected to be well south of our area, gusty winds are possible in the stronger storms. Above normal high temperatures on Sunday will gradually fall to below normal by mid week due to the clouds and rain. Beyond, this forecast period, models are showing the potential for another tropical system for the following weekend. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts on these potential systems. Be prepared for a busy tropical season. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Widespread cu field early this afternoon at all sites with the exception being DRT. Expect VFR cigs and winds out of the east to east-southeast through the period. Some MVFR cigs could develop at SAT and SSF around 12-14Z Saturday, so a TEMPO group has been utilized there. Otherwise, VFR expected at all sites through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...04 Aviation...MMM