670
FXUS64 KEWX 231707
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The upper level ridge centered over and north of the area will
produce a mainly dry forecast through the short term, with the
exception of far southern areas of the forecast area. A broad area
of low pressure is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and
is expected to move northwest into Mexico later tonight. Beneath the
ridge, the outer fringes of the tropical moisture associated with
this system has made it into South Texas, and will move as far north
as southern areas of our forecast area. Stray to isolated tropical
showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and again
Monday afternoon, mainly south of the U.S. 90 corridor. Greater
coverage of showers is expected farther south of the forecast area,
where deeper tropical moisture resides and influences from the ridge
are less.

Otherwise warm and humid conditions. This afternoon some isolated
spots in the Coastal Plains could see peak heat index values of
around 105-110 degrees. Coverage of the 105-110 degree heat index
values are forecast to expand Monday afternoon, and a heat advisory
could be required.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The Subtropical Ridge remains centered near or over our area through
the long term. Subsidence underneath the Ridge and a seasonally
moist airmass lead to no rain over most areas. However, a shower or
thunderstorm or two are possible near the Coastal Plains due to
forcing by the seabreeze each afternoon. Slightly above normal
temperatures prevail. With a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and
an increase in soil moisture from the recent rains, dewpoints will
not mix as efficiently. Elevated heat indices could make Heat
Advisories possible each day for parts of South Central Texas with
the favored areas being along and southeast of the I-35 corridor to
near the Coastal Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail through 03z at all terminals.
Isolated convection along the seabreeze should remain south of the
terminals this afternoon. Overnight, MVFR stratus is expected to
develop at KAUS, KSSF, and KSAT and persist through the morning
hours before mixing out. KDRT could see this stratus as well,
however confidence in it resulting in a change in flight category is
too low to include in prevailing. VFR will will prevail through the
final hours of this TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  95  76  96 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  99  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  96  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  95  75  96 /   0  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  96  77  96 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  77  97 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...04
Aviation...36