954
FXUS62 KFFC 061100
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with an earlier
MCS swept across the Atlanta metro area overnight, and his since
totally fallen apart. A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms
is presently marching E across central AL. Due to the effects of
the earlier MCS and outflow, high resolution models appear to be
having a difficult time resolving current activity. The upstream
convection is associated with an approaching shortwave and
attendant surface front. Uncertainty abounds as the upstream
convection approaches a less favorable initial environment.

Forecast models bring the bulk of the dynamic support with the
shortwave SE toward the Gulf Coast and the N Gulf of Mexico.
However, the NBM (model blend) suggests convection will expand
across the area later this morning. Have opted to scale back
initial PoPs a bit, with a gradual increase through the day as the
influence of earlier convection wanes, instability increases, and
the frontal boundary sweeps into the area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, but a few storms may become strong.

The first cold front may briefly stall across the S portion of
the County Warning Area later today. A reinforcing cold front will
move across the area tonight, driving remaining rain out of the
area and ushering in much drier air.

High temperatures today will from the upper 70s across the NE
mountains to the lower 90s SE of Macon. Cooler air behind the
secondary front will only make it into the extreme N prior to
sunrise. As a result, low temperatures Friday morning will range
from near 60 in the NE to the lower 70s in the extreme SE. High
temperatures on Friday will range from the mid 70s in the NE
mountains to the lower 90s in the S. Although Friday`s
temperatures will be similar to today`s, relative humidity values
will be 20 to 30 percent lower, making for more comfortable
conditions. /SEC

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The long-term period will start off Friday night and Saturday
with high pressure and a dry, continental airmass in the wake of
the cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion. Dew points
on Saturday will be the 50s area-wide under a mostly sunny sky.
Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, and afternoon
highs will be in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Both lows and highs
will be a few degrees cooler in the mountains.

Sunday through the middle of next week, expansive upper-level
troughing will be situated across the eastern third or so of the
CONUS. Disturbances within the troughing aloft along with renewed
moisture advection and daytime heating will support isolated to
scattered showers and storms each day (mainly in the afternoon and
evening). The GEFS depicts the greatest probabilities for CAPE
greater than 1000 J/kg across central Georgia each day. Ensemble
guidance depicts 30-40 kts of surface-to-500mb bulk shear across
portions of the CWA Sunday night through Tuesday night as a
disturbance/speed max traverses the base of the trough. Each day
will bring the potential for strong storms with gusty to localized
damaging winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud-
to-ground lightning. Widespread severe weather does not appear
likely, but an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out
each day. QPF for the long-term period ranges from less than 0.10"
to around 0.30" but localized greater totals are possible with
any especially efficient storms and/or training storms.

Sunday afternoon highs will be in the 80s across north Georgia
and in the 90s across central Georgia (with cooler temps in the
mountains). Highs on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be in the
lower 80s to lower 90s. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to
lower 70s.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A broken line of showers extends from NW GA to central AL, where
it becomes a more solid line with embedded thunderstorms. Have
included VCSH early this morning for Atlanta area terminals.
Additionally, IFR cigs have develops across a large area of N and
central GA. A cold front will move into the area later today, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near and S of the
front. The HRRR is not overly optimistic on storm development, but
there should be enough destabilization during the afternoon to
couple with weak dynamic forcing. Most of this activity should
develop S of the Atlanta metro and AHN areas. Light SW winds will
veer to more westerly by afternoon with some gusts near 20 knots.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium regarding thunderstorm redevelopment coverage and timing,
high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  86  60  87 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  86  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     59  77  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    64  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        70  91  63  91 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     67  84  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           70  91  63  91 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            65  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  87  60  89 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  93  68  91 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC