307
FXUS63 KFGF 080838
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
338 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next more widespread rain and thunderstorm chance returns to
  the area late Monday into Monday night. Predictability is low
  for impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb short wave which brought light rain showers to the area
Saturday afternoon and night is exiting the area with all
showers moving out of the forecast area prior to 11z. In its
wake will be a clear to partly cloudy sky to start the day and
thru the morning. There is a short wave seen on water vapor
moving west thru NW Ontario and this short wave is progged to
drop back south tonight and into the Duluth area 12z Sunday. A
weak surface boundary will accompany this upper wave. This
boundary will move into southern Manitoba mid to late afternoon
today and a couple hundred j/kg CAPE should be enough to
generate isold shower or t-storms in S Manitoba and then move
south into far NE ND and NW MN before activity dies off this
evening. Airmass this system is moving into is very dry below
800 mb limiting any rainfall to a trace to a couple hundredths
and that in isolated areas already mentioned.

Mild today with highs low-mid 70s with a northwest wind 10-20
kts.

Weak boundary moves south tonight and Sunday will see a north
wind at 10-20 kts and cooler air at the sfc-850 mb move in, most
noticeable in NW MN with highs on Sunday in the low-mid 60s. Dry
conditions Sunday.

Next week showing a system for Monday late into Monday
night/early Tuesday. Then afterwards warmer air mid week and
then potential for stormy conditions as we look ahead to next
weekend, but much depends on position of upper ridge that is
projected to build into the area and 500 mb trough to our west.

...More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances move in late
Monday and Monday night...

After a good deal of disagreement in past days in regards to
Monday, better agreement with the 00z model suite and ensembles
in showing next short wave moving in off the Pacific into
Oregion and then Montana and northeast into SE Saskatchewan and
southern Manitoba Monday night. Sfc low pressure will be located
near the upper wave track with a boundary moving east into E ND
Monday night and exiting NW/WC MN Tuesday. A period of likely
pops with this system with WPC indicating average QPF in the
0.30 to 0.50 inch range. A few t-storms as well, but MU CAPE
values remain very low (sub 200 j/kg) as it moves thru our area
Monday night/early Tuesday.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions although rain showers pushing through KFAR and
KBJI for the next hour or so could briefly bring vis down to the
3-5SM range. Showers should exit the area by early morning.
Winds from the southwest at most sites will become more
northwesterly by Saturday afternoon with some gusts around 20
kts, then settle back down again around sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR