939
FXUS65 KFGZ 170924
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
224 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather today for much of northern
Arizona. Temperatures will trend closer to normal through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of
thunderstorms arrives Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An unseasonably cold trough moving through the
northwestern U.S. today will result in a dry and windy day across
Arizona. Wind speeds will be slightly higher than yesterday with
afternoon gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph for most areas. When
combined with low humidity and critically dry fuels, these winds
will generate critical fire weather, and Red Flag Warnings remain
in effect for a good portion of northern Arizona through this
evening. Lower than average heights for this time of year will
yield daytime temperatures a couple of degrees below normal.

The parent trough heads eastward tonight, but a longwave trough
settles in across much of the western U.S. through at least the
middle of this week. Subsequently, the dry and breezy weather
pattern will persist through the week. Wind speeds will be
lighter the remainder of the week but afternoons will still see
gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Higher pressure begins to take hold later this week as it
gradually builds westward across the southern U.S. Expect warming
temperatures from Thursday into the weekend. Along with the ridge
building into the region, ensemble guidance from both the GEFS
and ENS continue to support an increase in monsoonal moisture
beginning Thursday and spreading westward across the state. The
moisture looks mainly high-based, bringing a threat for high-based
showers and thunderstorms. Chances return Thursday across eastern
Arizona, and spread west from Friday through early next week. As
is typical for early in the monsoon pattern, a dry boundary layer
will limit the potential for measurable rainfall, with lightning
and gusty winds being the bigger threats. With the warming trend
through the week, heat risk in the lower elevations starts to
nudge toward critical levels by late next weekend - something we
will keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/06Z through Tuesday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period. Winds generally 10 kts or
less will continue through at least 15Z, before gusty SW winds
return. Look for gusts 30-40 kts and sustained speeds 15-25 kts.
Winds will gradually decline after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/06Z through Thursday 20/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the outlook period. Look for SW winds 5-15
kts each afternoon, with light and variable overnight winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures. Widespread critical fire weather along and north of
the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-45 mph today, subsiding to 10-15 mph for Tuesday. Minimum
afternoon RH values 5-15% today, then rising to 10-15% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday,
before chances for showers and dry thunderstorms return Thursday and
Friday. Otherwise, warming temperatures and breezy south winds with
afternoon gusts 20-30 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006-007-009>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff