188
FXUS65 KFGZ 200845
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
145 AM MST Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds are expected today along with slightly
cooler temperatures. A few isolated sprinkles or showers will be
possible later this afternoon and evening over eastern Arizona,
however much of the area will remain dry. Dry, mild, and breezy
weather then continues for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A closed-low off the southern California coast
will ejects off the Pacific today, while at the same time a trough
moves into the Great Basin. The two systems look to phase together
today, leading to a strengthening upper-level jet over Arizona.

Gusty southwest winds ensue over much of the region with the
increased pressure gradient. Model soundings for this afternoon
show ample mixing potential, allowing for the stronger winds aloft
to mix down to the surface. As a result, wind gusts of 35-45 kts
will be possible over a majority of northern Arizona. Locally
stronger winds up to 50 kts will be possible in the typical winder
locations downwind of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado
River Valley.

Given the track of the system, a fairly dry air mass will be in
place over the region (especially at the surface). The dry air mass
combined with gusty winds will lead to areas of critical fire
weather conditions, particularly across the lower elevations north
of the Mogollon Rim.

While dry air will be in place for most, a tongue of mid-level
moisture looks to into central Arizona this afternoon. Thus, there
is a slight chance for a few isolated showers today. However, the
vast majority of the area will remain dry. Moisture through much of
the boundary layer remains scarce, thus much of the increase in
moisture will only result in virga or increased cloud cover. Areas
that do see rain will likely only see a couple of drops to a few
hundredths of an inch. Additionally, given the inverted-v sounding
profile, gusty, erratic winds will be possible around any virga or
showers. The greatest chances for any showers look to mainly by from
the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains, and maybe over
the higher terrain near the AZ/UT border as well.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Behind the trough, quasi-zonal flow sets in
over Arizona. Winds weaken some, but remain breezy and temperatures
continue to remain within a couple of degrees of normal. Some gusty
winds will remain over portions of eastern Arizona during the
afternoon on Tuesday, potentially continuing near-critical fire
weather conditions into Tuesday for parts of Apache County.

Thursday through Sunday...Dry conditions and slightly cooler than
normal conditions continue into the weekend. Occasional shortwave
passes to the north will result some increased afternoon winds. As a
result, elevated fire weather conditions remain possible into the
end of the week. With the shortwave passes, there remains a chance
for a couple isolated showers over the higher terrain near the
AZ/UT border. However, at this point in time it`s too early to
confidently include any mentionable PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 20/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...Light winds
5-15 kts overnight. SW winds increase after 15Z Monday becoming
20-30 kts gusting 30-45 kts. The strongest winds will be north of
a KFLG - KSOW line. Local visibility reductions possible from
wildfire smoke and areas of blowing dust on Monday, with otherwise
VFR. A low chance (15-20%) exists for showers east of a KFLG -
KRQE line Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...Strong SW winds
gusting up to 45 kts continue through 02Z Tuesday before
decreasing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. W to SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the
afternoons.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday..Dry and windy conditions today
with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of northern Arizona.
Look for southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph across much
of the area. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday with west winds
10-20 mph. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions continue with near-normal
temperatures. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday, increasing to
15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff