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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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529 FXUS65 KFGZ 262108 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 208 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity decreases for Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION...A much less active day is underway across northern Arizona in the wake of this morning`s MCV passage. Ample cloud cover this morning has delayed daytime heating with convective initiation just beginning. Less available instability today will limit the coverage of showers and storms, with the best chances being west of Flagstaff and along the New Mexico border. That being said, plenty of moisture remains in place with PWATs (preciptable water) ranging from around 1.00 - 1.50". Any storms that do develop will have the potential of producing 1-2" rainfall amounts. Localized flash flooding will be the greatest concern today. Low wind shear should limit any severe potential, but some hail and gusty winds are possible. The moisture stays around for one more day on Thursday before a couple of drier days arrive. On Thursday, a trough of low pressure moving through the northwestern U.S. will nudge the subtropical high pressure southward while a drier southwesterly flow begins to develop. Expect the focus for showers and storms to shift to areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with drier conditions south and west of Flagstaff. The enhanced southwest flow will increase wind shear, especially across northeastern Arizona, leading to the potential for some longer lived and stronger/severe storms there. Much drier air sweeps over the area Thursday night through Friday. A dry day area-wide can expected Friday with the only chances for rain Saturday confined to the White Mountains. The dry days will be short-lived as subtropical high pressure building north and west again beginning Sunday will again usher in additional moisture from the south. Expect precipitation chances to increase and spread north through early next week. With more sunshine over the weekend, and high pressure building back into the state next week, temperatures will be on an increasing trend reaching a few degrees above normal. The monsoonal pattern looks to continue through much of next week, though confidence decreases in the moisture by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 26/00Z through Thursday 27/00Z...VFR conditions outside of storms. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/TSRA will persist until 02 - 04Z. Heavier TSRA will produce MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Winds will be light away form storms, with thunderstorm outflow gusts up to 40 kts. OUTLOOK...Thursday 27/00Z through Saturday 29/00Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions away form storms that develop Thursday afternoon. Drier weather is expected Friday. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storm development, with SW winds 10-20 kts expected otherwise. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On Thursday, the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim north and east. Southwest winds increase Thursday and Friday to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Saturday through Monday...Mostly dry weather on Saturday with the only storm chances confined to the White Mountains. Expect moisture and storm chances to gradually increase from Sunday onward. Temperatures will warm above average with daytime southwest winds of 10-20 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff