316
FXUS63 KGID 250535
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory for heat index values as high as 110 degrees
  remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. A separate Heat
  Advisory for portions of north central Kansas as well as
  Thayer and Nuckolls counties in south central Nebraska is in
  effect from 1 PM to 7 PM Tuesday.

- A (20-30%) chance for storms late this afternoon and evening,
  with a few marginally severe storms possible (damaging wind
  gusts will be the primary concern).

- A cold front will bring additional chances (20-50%) for
  thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather
  will be possible along this front, with large hail, severe
  winds and even an isolated tornado all possible.

- Cooler temperatures fluctuating closer to climatology (85-95
  degrees) expected for the remainder of the forecast period,
  with potentially below normal temperatures (upper 70s/low 80s)
  over next weekend. Multiple chances for showers and
  thunderstorms through next Monday, with the best chance for
  more widespread and beneficial rainfall expected Wednesday
  night through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The hottest day of the year, thus far, is being observed across
the local area. Heat index values have touched 110 degrees in
spots, and heat index values are expected to remain elevated
into the early evening hours - with the heat advisory in effect
until 8 PM this evening.

To the west, a weak upper disturbance is sparking some shower
and thunderstorm activity, which should eventually reach at
least western portions of the area this evening. Went ahead and
fine tuned pops for this evening to increase them a bit west of
281, with lesser chances further east as the evening rolls on.
While there is lots of instability to work with thanks to
heating across the area this afternoon, the high based nature of
these storms and lack of mid-level shear will likely limit
storm organization, and severe wind gusts will be the primary
concern through the mid-evening hours, although with the large
amount of instability, a brief period of marginally severe hail
could be possible with the strongest storms.

For Tuesday, the focus will shift towards a cold front that
should be crossing the local area during the mid-afternoon
hours. While the current runs of the CAMs are not producing a
continuous line of storms along this front, some of the past
runs have indicated this front should act as a trigger for storm
development by mid-late afternoon, and if storms do get going,
with better shear and good instability, just about any form of
severe weather will be possible - especially across our
northeast where probs are higher and a slight risk for severe
weather is in place for tomorrow afternoon/evening. That said,
confidence is not overly high, as models have not been
consistent in the development and coverage of storms for
tomorrow afternoon. What the cold front will mark is the line
between areas that will have one more unusually hot day and
likely reach heat advisory criteria. With little change in the
location of this line from the previous forecast, the areal
coverage of the heat advisory for Tuesday was left unchanged.

Thereafter...cooler weather should infiltrate the entire area on
Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures finally falling closer to
seasonal norms...with a stronger upper level disturbance
flattening the upper level ridge as it crosses the intermountain
west...bringing a better chance for precipitation to the area
late Wednesday night through Thursday night. At this time, the
marginal risk for severe weather only clips a very small portion
of our western counties, but would not be surprised if this
area gets expanded further east as time gets closer.
Additional, potentially strong to severe, storms will be
possible through the day Thursday, which at this time looks to
be the best shot for more widespread beneficial rainfall
according to ensembles. Additionally, a marginal to slight risk
for excessive rainfall exists across the area Thursday.

Thereafter...the upper level flow becomes more zonal and
progressive, with additional periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms through early next week, with a more noticeable
cold front next weekend dropping temperatures for both Saturday
and Sunday into the upper 70s and lower 80s, before returning
closer to climo (mid to upper 80s) to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will dissipate
around sunrise. Light and variable winds continue overnight and
through the morning hours on Tuesday, but will be mainly
southerly. A cold front will move through the area during the
afternoon hours with winds becoming northerly behind the front.
SCT to FEW high level clouds will persist through the TAF
period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis