Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
650 FXPQ50 PGUM 111955 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 555 AM ChST Wed Jun 12 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Gentle to moderate southeasterlies are persisting over the region, as a boundary layer disturbance enhanced by upper-level conditions is producing showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters. Ritidian buoy indicates seas are between 4 and 5 feet. && .Discussion... Little change has been made to the weather forecast. Shower coverage was increased slightly for tonight, with periods of on-and-off showers still expected the next several days. A TUTT cell moving across the region overhead during the second half of the week is bringing a possibility for thunderstorm development, but the chance remains low at this time due to lackluster surface features for said TUTT cell to interact with. Any thunderstorms that do develop, would be short-lived. As we get closer to late week, high-resolution models will come into range and provide some improved insight on convective potential as well as the potential for stronger wind gusts. && .Marine... The marine forecast is unchanged. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will continue into late week before increasing about a foot Friday as trade swell strengthens. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along east facing reefs the next few days, while the risk will remain low along all other reefs through the week. && .Eastern Micronesia... The main weather feature affecting Eastern Micronesia is a trade-wind trough which arcs from just east of Kosrae to near Majuro then further north-northeast. Scattered showers will continue at Majuro and Kosrae through the weekend. Once scattered showers start at Pohnpei tonight, they will also continue through the weekend. For the waters, both Pohnpei and Kosrae will have seas of 6 feet or less and winds of 15 knots or less, which means benign marine conditions. Majuro will also have 6 feet or less, but on Thursday and Thursday night, winds could reach 20 knots. This is still below advisory criteria, but only barely, so it will be challenging, and novice mariners should think twice. && .Western Micronesia... The main weather feature affecting Western Micronesia is a trade-wind trough about halfway between Yap and Koror Palau. Chuuk will be fairly dry though tonight, then the trough from Eastern Micronesia will be starting to affect them. Once it does, scattered showers will continue through Sunday. Yap and Koror Palau will be generally wet, with brief breaks possible tonight at Yap and Thursday and Thursday night at Palau, otherwise scattered through Sunday as well. Regarding seas, Chuuk will have winds 15 knots or less and seas 5 feet or less. Yap will have winds 15 knots or less and seas 4 foot or less. Palau will have winds 10 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less. In all these cases, it means benign marine conditions will continue through at least the weekend. The buoys are showing seas 2 to 4 feet in Western Micronesia at this time. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Montvila Micronesia: Stanko