947
FXUS64 KHUN 240500
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening as
earlier light rain showers have tapered off with only some
passing mid to high clouds from the west creating partly cloudy
conditions. Mild and muggy conditions will continue overnight,
with lows only dropping to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some
localized patchy fog may develop in sheltered river valleys and
near bodies of water, but the chances of this remain low. Only
minor tweaks made to the forecast as everything remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A wet and unsettled pattern is expected to begin by Tuesday as a
deep, upper trough digs towards the Southeastern US. Additionally,
a surface cold front is forecast to approach the Tennessee Valley
on Tuesday, then eventually slow and stall over our west or just
to our west by midweek. This will lead to generally medium to high
chances (50-80%) of showers and storms Tuesday through Wednesday
night, with the time frame of the greatest rain chances being
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Taking a look at the low chance of severe weather on Tuesday,
guidance suggests that instability and bulk shear are the greatest
along and west of I-65 during the day on Tuesday but may shift
towards the east into the evening hours. Instability looks to
range between 1500-2500 J/kg in the west and around 1000 J/kg in
the east. Furthermore, bulk shear values mainly range between
30-40 knots. Models indicate a stout upper level jet around 85-95
knots as well. The question will be just how unstable we actually
get during the afternoon, but the current thinking for timing of
any potential strong to severe storms will be from 11 AM through 7
PM. SPC has outlooked most of our local area in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) of severe weather tomorrow, primarily for damaging
winds. Heavy rain may also lead to nuisance flooding, with
forecast storm total rainfall between 1-3 inches (highest over
northeast Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee)
Tuesday through Wednesday night.

The increase in rain and storm chances will ultimately bring a
decrease in temperatures through midweek. Highs are expected to
reach the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Tuesday but only top out
in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees for most areas on Wednesday.
Low temperatures will follow a similar trend, falling into the
lower to mid 60s by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

3PM UPDATE: Bottom line up front is that there remains a fair bit
of uncertainty in the track and evolution of Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9. However, at this time, it looks like our main hazards
with this system are shaping up to be heavy rain/flooding and
potentially gusty winds. The flooding threat will be exacerbated
by the rain from earlier in the week, with the potential for 5-7
inches of rainfall for northeast Alabama and portions of southern
middle Tennessee by Friday night. Ultimately, like the previous
shift mentioned, a westward shift in the track of the system would
increase the potential of these impacts while an eastward shift
would lessen the potential. We`ll continue to monitor this system
through the coming days, so please make sure to stay weather
aware!

The long term part of the forecast will be heavily dependent on a
potential tropical system out of the western Caribbean that will
lift northward potentially making landfall along the eastern Gulf
Coast in the Thu night/early Fri time frame. Where this system
then tracks will determine how much additional rainfall the mid TN
Valley may experience into the first half of the weekend period.
If this system tracks more to the NNE versus the NE, the area
could see some additional rainfall along with some gusty winds
Fri/Fri night. However, a more eastern track may limit the
rainfall/winds and provide more of a dry forecast this weekend.
Regardless, highs look to remain in the upper 70s/near 80F this
weekend, with lows more in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

With mid/high clouds continuing to spread into the area from the
west, VFR conds are expected well into the morning hrs Tue. Sct to
perhaps num shra/tsra will then gradually spread eastward into the
area Tue afternoon ahead of a weak cold front and a PROB30 group
has been maintained during this period for reduced cig/vis. Shra
may then linger across the area Tue evening although cigs look to
remain above 3K ft. Light/var winds will also become SW near 7-8kt
with higher gusts late Tue morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09