530
FXUS61 KILN 220511
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
111 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid airmass will continue through the weekend. A
cold front will move through Sunday, bringing with it showers
and storms. Following the frontal passage, slightly cooler and
drier air will filter in Monday into early Tuesday before warmer
and much more humid air quickly returns. More showers and
storms will be possible Tuesday night through Wednesday,
with drier and cooler conditions settling in by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure remains overhead once again tonight. Mostly
clear and stagnant conditions persist. Forecast lows are in the
middle to lower 70s. Some isolated pockets of mist are possible
toward daybreak in sheltered locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Mid and upper level ridge to continue to stretch from the
Southern Plains thru the Ohio Valley Saturday.

The warmest stretch of the heat wave to continue into Saturday.
With better low level flow will support deeper diurnal mixing
leading to hot temperatures but also slightly drier air.

Expect highs in the mid and upper 90s with slightly lower
dewpoints yielding max heat indices around 100. Drier air and
lack of forcing should inhibit convective development Saturday
across the area.

Mid level shortwave to track across the northern Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday. Saturday night starts dry with a low
chance of convection into the northwest late as moisture
increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Low temperatures
to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is forecast to drag a cold front across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Ample instability will allow
thunderstorms to form along and ahead of the front. Potent winds
aloft enhancing storm strength and duration will enable the
potential for severe weather including damaging winds and large
hail. Heavy rain will also be possible from an environment
containing over 2 inches PWAT.

Precip and severe weather potential falls off quickly Sunday night
as the cold front exits east. High pressure is expected to bring dry
weather Monday through most of Tuesday. Another cold front and more
showers and storms are forecast for Wednesday. High pressure and dry
air return for Thursday and Friday.

Clouds and precip near the cold front will help limit highs to
around 90 on Sunday. Slight reduction to temps is indicated for
Monday under modest cold advection, with highs ranging from the mid
80s to around 90. Another hot day is predicted for Tuesday when
readings will reach the 90s again. The next cold front should allow
readings to retreat back to the 80s in most locations for Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some patchy BR may lead to MVFR VSBYs in the prone locales of
KLUK and KILN in the several hours around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Diurnally-
driven SCT VFR Cu will sprout about again for the afternoon
hours before waning in coverage toward/beyond 00z. Some mid/high
level clouds will approach from the NW toward the end of the
period with some ISO/SCT SHRA toward 12z Sunday.

Winds will remain light/VRB through the morning before
increasing out of the SW around 8-10kts for the afternoon. Winds
should stay out of the SW toward the end of the period around
5-7kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday and late Tuesday
through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC