364
FXUS63 KLMK 151729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry and warm conditions expected across the region today.

*  Chances for rain (<30%) possible around midweek for areas along
   and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm through next
   weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s, with mostly sunny
skycover. The primary band of clouds is located well south of us,
though some mid-level clouds have been lingering over parts of
Ohio/Butler/Grayson/Hancock/Breckinridge. We`ll keep a dry forecast
going through this afternoon as the belt of moisture transport
remains far enough south. Temps should peak in the upper 80s this
afternoon, with a few spots close to 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Early morning satellite imagery reveals clear to partly cloudy skies
across the region.  Much of the cloudiness is over far western KY
along the eastern periphery of the remnant circulation of Francine
which continues to spin down.  Temperatures have a little bit of a
ridge-valley split this morning with the cooler valleys/radiational
cooling spots down in the lower 60s with the ridges remaining in the
upper 60s.  For the remainder of the overnight hours, no significant
weather is expected and temps will bottom out in the upper 50s to
around 60 in the valleys with the ridges remaining in the mid 60s.

For today, a continued Rex block pattern will remain in place across
the region.  The upper ridge to our north/northeast will build
southward and push the remnants of Francine more to the west and
southwest which will result in a drier day across the region. Highs
today will warm into the mid-upper 80s with a few spots hitting 90.

For tonight, with building high pressure into the region, mostly
clear skies are expected with lows dropping back into the upper 50s
to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The long term forecast continues to feature unusual upper-level
blocking patterns for our region through most of next week. The Rex
Block that has been in place for most of the weekend shifts slightly
eastward for the start of the week. This will feature an upper ridge
centered over the Great Lakes and New England as the upper low that
was once associated with Francine over the southern US. With the
ridging aloft and sfc high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
and the northeast building back into the Ohio Valley, we look to
start the week warm and dry. The forecast and overall pattern turns
more complicated with the development of a second warm core tropical
system off the SC coast. Deterministic models continue to struggle
with the spatial and temporal aspects with this warm core system but
also the overall strength. GFS seems to be quicker but also weaker
bringing this system into eastern KY and WV Monday night into
Tuesday while the EURO has this system not working into the Ohio
Valley until late Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing and location will
determine if locations within our CWA, mainly along and east of the
I-75 corridor, see any rain out of this system. Overall confidence
remains low given the large discrepancies in the handling of this
next potential tropical system.

By the end of the week, a second weaker Rex Block pattern looks
to setup across the eastern third of the US with the upper-low
over NC/VA and weaker upper ridging over southern Ontario. This
will shift eastward as ridging from Texas will help to
strengthen the Rex Block by the weekend.

Outside of the low end rain chances Tuesday into Thursday (10 to 20
percent) across the far eastern CWA, the overall forecast looks dry.
Temperatures also look to remain warm compared to mid September
normals with highs in the mid to even upper 80s through the week and
lows upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

High pressure to our north will continue to provide mostly clear
conditions and VFR flight categories for the forecast period. Winds
will generally be light and from the east. BWG has the best chance
for any mid and high level clouds, though no impacts are expected.
VFR continues tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CJP