769
FXUS63 KLMK 230635
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
235 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Scattered showers and storms likely today, some of which could
    be strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall
    would be the most likely threats in the strongest storms.

*   Heat Index may rise above 100 degrees on Tuesday, especially
    west of the I-65 corridor.

*   Another round of scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday
    ahead of a frontal boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Currently mostly clear and quiet to start off the early morning, but
some changes are on the way as a frontal boundary slides toward the
region. 06z surface analysis shows the front stretching from Kansas
into the Great Lakes region, with a line of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. These showers and storms will steadily
weaken and decay as they get closer to our neck of the woods near
dawn as they out-run the frontal boundary, but may provide some much
needed (albeit light) rainfall to portions of southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky before it completely fizzles out.

The frontal boundary will eventually dive into our region this
afternoon, and should serve as a focus for scattered convective
development. Additional mesoscale boundaries from the morning
activity could also help to spark showers/storms. Most guidance
indicates that the frontal boundary will be near the Ohio River by
the time we reach convective temperatures, which will result in the
majority of our shower/storm activity staying confined to central
Kentucky for the afternoon hours.

We should clear out and destabilize enough to warrant a low-end risk
for isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms. Biggest
limiting factor for a more impactful severe event will be the
marginal deep layer shear (<30kts 0-6km bulk shear). Main threat
with the stronger storms will be gusty winds given DCAPEs likely
exceeding 1,000 J/KG. Torrential rainfall will be likely in storms
as well given a very moist airmass (PWATs >2"), though the spotty
coverage of showers and storms today should limit any sort of flood
threat.

Drier air will move in behind the front and we should clear out
overnight. Weak surface high pressure will be nearly overhead by
dawn tomorrow so there could be patchy fog for the morning hours,
particularly where rainfall occurred.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Monday - Monday Night...

The long term period will begin with high pressure over the Ohio
Valley and broad ridging slowly moving east. These features will
result in clear skies, light winds, and warm temperatures. Expecting
to see temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s on Monday. Dew
points are forecasted to be in the low-mid 60s. Monday should be a
pleasant summer day.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

Ridging aloft will weaken and surface high pressure will drift
southeast of the region. This will lead to southwesterly flow and
returned moisture. Dew points will rise into the upper 60s and low
70s. With temperatures forecasted in the low-mid 90s, this will
bring heat indices into the upper 90s and low 100s (west of I-65). A
weak shortwave trough will enter the region Tuesday afternoon,
bringing weak forcing to present moisture and instability. Would
expect to see some convective initiation in the later afternoon and
into the evening. Lapse rates and shear suggest unorganized
summertime convection.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Troughing will deepen over the region bringing better forcing over
the region where moisture is still present. Wednesday will be the
best chance for much needed rain. PWATs will be in the 1.8-2.0 inch
range, accompanied with a well saturated column. Should be able to
get 0.25-0.75 inches of rain, with locally higher totals possible.
Wednesday evening, troughing will begin to push eastward and the
`cold` front will also push through the area.

Thursday - The Weekend...

High pressure and broad ridging will move over the Ohio Valley,
bringing dry and warm weather through the end of the week. By the
weekend, high pressure will shift east, and southwesterly flow will
bring returned moisture. Above normal temperatures are expected over
the weekend. Troughing over the northern Plains will deepen and move
eastward through the weekend, leading to increased chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A line of showers and storms have developed ahead of a frontal
boundary stretching from northern Missouri into the Great Lakes
region. This activity will steadily approach us this morning, but
greatly weaken and likely dissipate somewhere over southern Indiana
and/or northern Kentucky shortly after dawn.

Winds will pick up shortly after sunrise from the southwest, and
gusts ~20kts will be common at all TAF sites. Renewed scattered
shower/storm development will occur along the frontal boundary and
other mesoscale boundaries across our region this afternoon, mainly
south of the Ohio river. Any TAF site that is impacted by one of
these showers or storms will see briefly reduced cigs/vis and
potentially gusty, erratic winds. Winds will turn northwest behind
the front and drier air will filter in behind the front this evening
giving way to mostly clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...DM