491
FXUS64 KLUB 241949
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

An upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua is expected to persist
through the short term period, gradually edging northward into
Tuesday. The influence of this ridge should continue the upward
trend in temperatures, with Tuesday`s highs exceeding 100 degrees F
off the Caprock and across the southern South Plains. Forecast
confidence in heat index values above 105 is high enough in the far
southeastern TXPH and northern Rolling Plains to warrant a Heat
Advisory on Tuesday afternoon.

By early evening on Tuesday, inverted-v soundings with 1000-1500
J/kg of CAPE indicate a marginal environment for thunderstorms
across the South Plains and far southern TXPH. Westerly flow aloft
should turn NNW by Tuesday evening as the center of the upper-level
ridge moves over Las Cruces. Thus, if storms initiate across the
TXPH or eastern NM, they could move into the CWA tomorrow evening
with the potential for a few strong wind gusts.

/DF

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Barring a few windows for thunderstorms, the extended pattern
remains a mostly hot and dry one for our area thanks to a large dome
of high pressure either directly over us or close by. Starting
Tuesday evening, this high will be found over western NM and is
forecast to have amplified from 592 to 595 dam. Downstream of this
ridge, westerly winds aloft will veer N-NW and could serve to give a
better southward push to late day storms firing along a surface
trough in the northern TX Panhandle. Another area of interest for
high-based storms tomorrow evening will be along the Mescalero
Ridge of far eastern NM where weak upslope flow is expected.
Modest northerly flow aloft and some outflow propagation supports
low PoPs for our W-NW counties with a similar scenario on
Wednesday evening.

The one bit of good news with the upper high is that it will be
weakening by Thursday as it elongates and shifts over the South
Plains. So despite the increased subsidence, high temps won`t be
getting any hotter than preceding days as thicknesses remain largely
unchanged. The high center departs to well to our east for Friday
and opens the door to some low PoPs on the periphery of this ridge
across our NW zones near a surface trough. These PoPs look to
improve a bit and expand in coverage by late Saturday as a decaying
cold front drifts across the TX Panhandle, although recent global
models and ensembles are unfortunately trending farther north with
this front which implies dry conditions locally. Opted to shave
NBM`s generous PoPs back a bit for Saturday evening given this
trend. Otherwise, Sunday and beyond show the subtropical high
holding near the Ozarks all the while a plume of monsoonal moisture
becomes established to our west. High temps will remain above normal
through the weekend with additional Heat Advisories possible on
Wednesday for our far E-NE counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28/DF
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...28/DF