Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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011 FXUS64 KLZK 170515 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Scattered, diurnally driven convection has developed across parts of the north this afternoon. The upper high that has been the dominate feature of late has moved far enough to the east to allow convection to develop in the rather moist and unstable environment in place. Convection is expected to die off later this evening and a return to dry conditions for the overnight hours. Aforementioned upper high will be located over the southeast CONUS come Monday morning as troughing moves into the Pacific northwest. Southerly flow between these two systems will continue to draw in gulf moisture resulting in additional diurnal convection with POPS higher Monday afternoon as an upper level impulse moves through. Precipitation will be of the hit or miss variety and even where rain does fall, amounts will be very high with most areas averaging under a quarter of an inch. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a stray strong storm or to can not be ruled out in this type of environment. Temperatures will be slightly cooler versus the past several days with the increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances. Still, highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 An upper ridge will be situated over the eastern US at the start of the long term period with troughing noted across the West. Along the south/southwestern periphery of the eastern ridge, the flow will be from E-W along the Gulf Coast. This will allow a series of upper waves to move inland along the TX/LA portion of the coast. Regardless of actual tropical development in the Gulf this week, a period of heavy rain and potential flooding is expected along the TX coast. Some low chances for diurnally driven activity will remain possible on Wednesday across the state with temperatures remaining a bit cooler than what has been seen recently. By late week and into the weekend, the H500 ridge to the east of AR will gradually expand its influence and once again encompass the state. Chances for afternoon convection look to decrease and temperatures will likely increase. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Diurnal SHRA/TSRA will be possible through the afternoon/evening hours Monday for mainly central and southern terminals. VCTS has been written in for those sites. Southerly winds are expected through the period. Winds could be gusty associated with any thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 72 87 70 / 50 10 30 0 Camden AR 91 71 86 70 / 50 10 30 10 Harrison AR 88 70 86 68 / 20 0 20 0 Hot Springs AR 90 71 89 70 / 40 10 30 10 Little Rock AR 90 74 89 73 / 50 10 30 10 Monticello AR 90 73 86 71 / 70 10 30 10 Mount Ida AR 90 70 88 69 / 40 10 30 10 Mountain Home AR 88 71 86 70 / 30 10 30 0 Newport AR 90 73 87 72 / 50 10 30 0 Pine Bluff AR 90 73 87 72 / 50 10 30 10 Russellville AR 90 73 89 71 / 40 10 30 10 Searcy AR 90 72 87 70 / 50 10 30 10 Stuttgart AR 90 74 86 73 / 50 10 30 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...73