148
ACUS11 KWNS 231924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231923
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...southeast NY...northwest
NJ...CT...and southern MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231923Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for a few strong to severe
storms this afternoon. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two
appear to be the main concerns. Convective and environmental trends
are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating within cloud breaks from eastern
PA northeastward across southern New England is supporting steep
low-level lapse rates amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. While
large-scale ascent is generally weak across the area, convection
approaching from the west and potentially new development along
mesoscale/differential heating boundaries could become strong to
severe, given 40 kt of deep-layer shear per regional VWP. Ample
low/midlevel flow and the steepened low-level lapse rates will favor
a damaging-wind risk, and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature
could support a brief tornado or two with any sustained supercell
structures. Overall, confidence in the development of persistent
strong/severe updrafts is low owing to the weak forcing for ascent,
though convective and environmental trends are being monitored for a
possible watch this afternoon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40567764 41927651 42667570 42767522 42707460 42197261
            42117118 41827107 41617114 41417205 41337260 41267332
            40707473 40077557 39857619 39887700 40157759 40567764