590
FXUS63 KMKX 090835
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy west to northwest winds today, with a Small Craft
  Advisory in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan

- Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday
  through the remainder of the week

- Warmer temperatures likely mid to late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today through Monday:

Broad cyclonic flow will linger across the region today and
Monday, with high temperatures remaining a bit below normal.
Additionally, a weak shortwave will drop through the area today,
bringing mostly cloudy conditions to much of southern Wisconsin
by the afternoon hours. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few
sprinkles this afternoon, but in general, it doesn`t look like
there will be enough moisture for rain showers today. Breezy
west to northwest winds are also expected today. Temperatures
should crack the low 70s most places today, with somewhat
cooler conditions Monday behind the shortwave. It will be even
cooler near the lake tomorrow, as winds will turn onshore by the
afternoon hours.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tuesday through Saturday:

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty for the extended
period of the forecast, particulary with precipitation chances.
It does appear that the upper level flow will turn more zonal
by mid-week, with upper level ridging likely building in this
weekend. This will allow temperatures to warm back up to at
least normal, if not above normal by the end of the week into
the weekend. Models continue to suggest a chance for showers and
storms at times, as shortwaves move through the area. Agreement
among models with timing/strength/placement of these waves
remains on the lower end. Model ensemble data is similarly
muddy, with model QPF spread out throughout mid-week into the
weekend. Kept the occasional lower end NBM precip chances in the
forecast, with not enough confidence yet to raise the chances
any particularly day.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Could see some localized fog early this morning, but most places
should remain VFR under mostly clear skies. Clouds will increase
from north to south later this morning into the afternoon as a
shortwave drops through the area. Ceilings may drop to MVFR for
a brief period later this afternoon into early evening. Breezy
west to northwest winds are expected today, particularly late
morning through late afternoon. Clouds will gradually clear out
from north to south later this evening into tonight behind the
departing shortwave.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Breezy westerly winds today will veer to the north through the
day as a trough moves through the area. These winds will be due
to a tighter pressure gradient between high pressure centered
just north of the Northern Plains and low pressure centered
just east of James Bay in Canada. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect from mid-morning into early evening. Northerly winds
will remain breezy on Monday between these two systems, as they
slowly shift eastward. Lighter winds are then likely Monday
night into Tuesday as the high moves through the area, with
southerly winds picking up later Tuesday into Wednesday on the
back side of the departing high.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
     Sunday to 7 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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