786
FXUS63 KMKX 221458
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
958 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue through this
  morning, slowly ending west to east late this morning into
  early this afternoon.

- Generally expect up to an additional 0.5 inch of precipitation in
  southeastern Wisconsin.

- Cooler/near normal temps are expected behind the cold front
  today through the start of the week with daily highs in the
  upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 959 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Moderate steady rain has become the main precipitation across
south-central to southeastern Wisconsin. The heaviest band of
precipitation with rates over 1 inch per hour has moved offshore
into Lake Michigan, which will allow for less ponding of water
potential going into the later morning hours. Modeling continues
to struggle with the deformation band duration, so forecast
updates this morning into this afternoon will be primarily based
on observational trends. The cold front has finally hooked into
southwestern Wisconsin, and is expected to slowly progress
eastward while also pushing into central Wisconsin from the
north. This will cut off the moisture transport and assist with
precipitation ending. Northerly winds will become gusty this
afternoon, with gusts to 20 mph expected.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Today through Monday night:

Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Wisconsin this
morning ahead of and along an approaching cold front. The cold front
is currently running southwest to northeast from La Crosse, to
Marathon to Vilas County. The chances for any severe weather
through this morning remains low with the lack of shear and very
low CAPE values (roughly around 100 J/kg at most when looking
at the Most Unstable CAPE). With the showers/storms out ahead of
the front being sustained along an upper level shortwaves and
some low level warm/moist air advection coverage is expected to
continue to ebb and flow. As the more organized shortwave energy
works east into northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, the
coverage over eastern Wisconsin is expected to increase through
roughly mid morning. The rain and storms are expected to linger
into this afternoon until the front clears.

Behind the front, winds will shift to the north to northwest with
cold air advection kicking in. Temperatures will cool across
southern Wisconsin and drier air will begin to move into the state.
Another upper level shortwave trough is expected to move through the
Great Lakes Region later Monday. Not expecting a lot with this
shortwave, as we will be both cooler and drier. Cloud cover is
expected to linger. The best chances for any shower activity
will be to our south and east. In the event that the mid levels
do not dry out quickly enough kept some low chance POPs in
southeast Wisconsin.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tuesday through Saturday:

Cooler weather is expected to persist through much of the extended
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across southern Wisconsin. A
Rex blocking pattern attempts to set up across the central conus for
mid to late next week which will likely keep conditions dry across
much of the region. There`s still a lot of uncertatiny in this
pattern, as the upper level trough is expected to dig southward
into the Great Lakes Region with a few models trying to have
this pattern slightly retrograde. Low chance POPs around 20% or
less do sneak in among the average of model guidance during this
time, which seems reasonable given the uncertainty of the
location or the trough.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 959 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Ceilings will continue to bounce between VFR and IFR through
this morning as precipitation slowly ends west to east and a
cold front pushes through the region. IFR ceilings are
widespread along and immediately behind the front itself, which
are expected through much of the afternoon. Ceilings will slowly
improve this evening into tonight. Northerly winds will increase
through this morning, with gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible this
afternoon. Winds will diminish into tonight inland, with
lakeshore terminals continuing to see gusts around 15 kt.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Expect southerly winds increase through the evening as low
pressure around 29.7 inches lifts from MN to Ontario, which will
in turn drag a cold front across WI and Lake Michigan this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the
cold front. Southwesterly winds will become northerly behind this
front tonight into Monday. Given the strong cold air moving over
the warmer lake waters, expecting to see gusty northerly winds
during this timeframe. Gusts up to 30 knots and an occasional
gale force gust cannot be ruled out, especially for the southern
portions of Lake Michigan. Will see winds weaken a bit for Monday
as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes region, but the
northerly component will persist through the start of the week.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066...1 PM Sunday
     to 1 PM Monday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM
     Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM Sunday to 1 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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