109
FXUS62 KMLB 161744
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
144 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, but a couple inland
terminals could see MVFR-IFR VIS impacts from TSRA/SHRA for an
hour or so. SHRA over performed a little along the ECSB,
developing ISO-SCT at 17Z, a little earlier and higher coverage
than expected and prompting AMDs for VCSH/VCTS at inland
terminals, and a TEMPO for KSFB. Activity will press west through
the afternoon, with the bulk of the convection west of the
terminals by 22Z. VFR conditions prevail after 02Z. Winds Erly
~10 kts at coastal terminals and 10-15G20 kts at inland terminals
settle to 5-10 kts overnight, then pick back up to ~15G20-25 kts
at coastal terminals by late Monday morning, and 10-15G20 kts at
inland terminals in the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Temperatures are steadily warming into the 80s this morning, on
the way to highs in the upper 80s (coast) to low/mid 90s (inland).
A low to mid level cloud deck from Lake Okeechobee to coastal
Stuart County has produced light radar returns over the last hour,
warranting a 15-20 PoP across those far southern locations
through late morning. Depending on how long clouds last down
south, temperatures could stay a degree or so cooler than
expected. Otherwise, an inland-moving sea breeze this afternoon
will prompt isolated showers and a storm or two to form, mainly
from the Orlando metro area westward. Rain and lightning chances
remain low but non-zero, with the highest chance (30-40 PoP)
situated from Leesburg to the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee.
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient continues across the
local waters early this morning with L/V winds under 10 kts.
However, an NE/ENE flow will develop with speeds increasing to
8-13 kts by afternoon. ERLY winds will increase tonight to 12-17
kts areawide as the pgrad begins to tighten. Seas 2-3 ft, but
begin to build later tonight up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream.

Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds
winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu
with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which
does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it
ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon
and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up
to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps
up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach
14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary
Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and
perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week
should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated
lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local
waters as moisture values increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  76  87 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  75  88  75  87 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  77  88  77  88 /  10  20  10  40
VRB  76  88  76  87 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  76  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
SFB  75  89  75  89 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  76  89  76  89 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  76  87  76  87 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley