Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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427 FXUS62 KMLB 210936 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 536 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Key Messages: - An area of low pressure (AL92) will approach the FL/GA border today. NHC is monitoring the disturbance for tropical development. - Locally heavy rains this morning in Volusia, Seminole, and Lake counties. After a break, additional storms possible there later this afternoon. - Increasing heat and humidity near and south of Orlando today, with max heat index readings as high as 105F. Today...Pressure gradient has weakened considerably over central and southern sections of EC FL as trough axis assocd with AL92 approaches from the E/SE. The center of AL92 is about 200 miles east of JAX early this morning and should continue a W/NW track toward the FL/GA border today. A N-NE gradient wind persists along the Volusia coast and out of an abundance of caution have extended the High Surf Advisory there until 10 am to capture 1 more high tide at 8 am. The High Surf Adv was allowed to expire elsewhere. Thereafter, winds will become uniformly S to SE as the trough axis passes W/NW of the area. GOES Precip water sounding shows deep moisture across northern half of FA which is supporting scattered to numerous showers, with some heavy training bands. Southern Volusia has received the bulk of the rain with 1-2" locally 2.5" overnight. Additional rains will continue to push onshore Volusia and well inland across Lake county this morning. There should be a lull mid day followed by additional showers and a better chance for lightning later this afternoon along and north of the I 4 corridor. South of Orlando, drier air will limit rain/storm coverage. But more heating will allow temps to climb into the lower and even mid 90s. With dewpoints in the low and mid 70s, peak heat indices up to 105 are forecast. More clouds and morning rain will keep northern sections to the mid and upper 80s. Sat-Thu...Saturday marks the beginning of increasing rain chances this weekend and into next week. Upper level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S., weakly influencing the overall pattern here in Florida. H500 falls across the southeast and Mid Atlantic are expected Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will remain southerly, backing southeast during the afternoon as the sea breeze forms. Light flow becomes increasingly SSW through midweek next week. With PW around 2"+ through much of this period, expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze and storm-scale boundary collisions occur over the peninsula. PoPs go from 60 percent Saturday up to 60-70 percent later in the weekend and next week. The NBM remains too high with PoPs (a common bias at least here in FL) so continue to cap forecast values. Regardless, this stretch of days could provide some additional, much needed rain for parts of the area. Temperatures through the extended stay warm, generally in the low 90s, with heat indices approaching 100-107. Nighttime temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms will persist this morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should decrease in coverage. But additional late day storms over land may reach the Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset. Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 203 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Prevailing light rain is forecast to persist from MLB northward through the early morning hours. TEMPOs included at these terminals for MVFR VIS/CIGs in occasional heavier bands of rainfall. VRB winds around 5 kts are forecast through at least sunrise as low pressure continues to approach the northeast Florida coastline. Winds becoming east into the afternoon increasing between 8-12 kts. VCSH/VCTS mentioned this afternoon from MLB northward while overall coverage of precip decreases. VCTS also mentioned at SUA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 76 91 75 / 70 30 60 60 MCO 91 77 92 76 / 50 30 60 50 MLB 89 77 90 76 / 30 30 60 60 VRB 91 76 90 75 / 30 30 60 40 LEE 89 77 94 76 / 60 30 60 50 SFB 89 76 92 75 / 50 30 60 50 ORL 90 77 92 76 / 50 30 60 50 FPR 91 76 90 75 / 30 30 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ141. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-570-572. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Law