457
FXUS63 KMPX 142331
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s return tomorrow through
  early next week.

- Rain chances increase from Wednesday through next weekend as a
  more active pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Scattered showers and areas of drizzle have become less
widespread over the past couple of hours. An occasional
heavier shower, especially across eastern portions of the
forecast area, will remain possible through early this evening.
Further west, plentiful sunshine has allowed temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 80s. These temperatures will return
area wide tomorrow with borderline breezy south winds in the
afternoon at 20-25 MPH. There`s a non-zero chance for a couple
pop up showers tomorrow, but chances are low enough that they
have not been included in the PoP grids for now. We`ll start the
work week with more of the same- highs in the mid to upper 80s
with breezy southerly winds as a warm front associated with a
deepening surface low over the western Dakotas late Monday
through Tuesday. With a persistent ridge to our east, this
system will have a hard time making much progress westward as we
head into the middle of the week. Have introduced 50-60 PoPs
for far western Minnesota early Wednesday with 30-50 PoPs
overspreading the remainder of the state through the overnight.

By the end of the week, widespread showers and some more
seasonable temperatures may be on the horizon as the
aforementioned ridge finally weakens to our east. Ensembles have
had a fairly consistent signal and continue to show the
possibility for a prolonged period of rain from early next
weekend through the beginning of the following week.
Temperatures should also finally settle down to near late
September normals in the lower 70s and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Maintained VFR conditions at all TAF sites along with dry
conditions as any isolated showers and/or patchy drizzle has
been gradually dissipating and sliding eastward, away from all
sites. Should any last-ditch-effort precipitation move across
any terminal, no flight degradations are expected and any
precipitation will be insignificant. That said, mid-level
ceilings will remain in place over eastern MN into western WI as
satellite imagery shows the swath of clouds rather slow to move
out. No ceilings are expected by daybreak Sunday morning. Winds
will run S to SE throughout with speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC