Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
878 FXUS65 KMSO 111854 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1254 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .DISCUSSION...A weak cold front associated with a passing low pressure system along the Canadian border will cause gusty westerly winds this afternoon and evening. The strongest gusts will be across northwest Montana with Flathead and Mission valleys having around a 70% chance of having gusts in excess of 30 mph today. Flathead Lake will experience some gusty winds with choppy conditions, but the wind direction and cold water will hinder the stronger winds from reaching the surface. The cold front will cause temperatures to drop around 10 degrees on Wednesday compared to today. Breezy conditions will persist across Lemhi county and southwest Montana on Wednesday afternoon. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will create near critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours. A ridge of high pressure builds back over the region on Thursday into Friday allowing for a warming and drying trend. All the models are still indicating that a trough of low pressure will settle over the region this weekend into the first part of next week. The cold front associated with the pattern change appears to move through the region Saturday/Saturday night. Around 45% of the models are indicating a closed low pressure system moving over the Northern Rockies on Monday which will bring widespread precipitation. The increased moisture and lowering snow levels could bring accumulating snow to the higher terrain. The mountains along the Continental Divide and across Lemhi county & southwest Montana have a 50-70% chance of receiving at least an inch of snow by Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION...A weak cold front will traverse the Northern Rockies this afternoon causing gusty westerly winds at all the terminals. The winds will subsided slightly after sunset this evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$