457
FXUS64 KOHX 031724
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level ridge is sitting off to our north with zonal flow
setting up over us. Overall we will see quiet weather today but a
short wave to our west will push east into our area. This will be
enough to kick off a few scattered showers and thunderstorms after
20z mainly to the west of I-65. We will have quite a bit of CAPE
around but with little to no wind shear and poor lapse rates
strong storms are not expected. With PWATs above 1.50" heavy rain
can be expected with any convection. Any thunderstorm activity
that develop should die down quickly as sunset approaches. Highs
this afternoon will be warm in the mid 80s to near 90.

Much of the overnight will be dry but a decaying thunderstorm
complex will push east into our area by daybreak as an MCV. This
will give us some forcing and may kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. The MCV will linger over the area
into the afternoon and will bring an increased chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Soundings once again show
quite a bit of CAPE but overall shear will be low and lapse rates
will be poor. This will limit the potential for strong storms.
PWATs remain high and heavy rain can be expected with any
thunderstorms. With the cloud cover on Tuesday daytime highs will
be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level trough will be pushing out of the northern Rockies
into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will push a cold front
into our area. Warm air advection and increase in moisture Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will bring the chance for a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will
increase late morning into the afternoon as the cold front
approaches the area. Thunderstorm chances diminish during the
evening and overnight. 0-6 km shear does increase some on
Wednesday pushing above 20 knots and mid-level lapse rates
increase some also. This will give us a chance to see isolated
stronger storms in the afternoon. Gusty winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats with anything stronger but some hail will also
be possible.

The front will linger over the area on Thursday and could bring a
few thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon over the
Plateau. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s and they will
be a bit warmer on Thursday in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points
will push above 70 on Wednesday but drier air will gradually
filter in on Thursday. The end of the week into the weekend is
looking great with strong ridging to our west and troughing over
the Northeast. This will bring comfortable dew points and highs
in the 70s to low 80s. Higher dew points will start to creep back
in Sunday into next week along with some instability. Won`t see
much forcing but with the CAPE back we could see a few pop up
afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Surface ridge has slid off to the east, so that is allowing for
some return southerly flow and greater low-level moisture to
filter in to the mid state. We may see some isolated cells affect
areas near the Tennessee River by 00Z today, which would impact
primarily the CKV terminal, but POPs are very low so we`ve left
out any mention of convection until tomorrow. A developing
shortwave to our west is likely to start producing more active
weather after 12Z, which we`ll handle with VCTS/CB remarks for
the time being. Until then, look for VFR wx across Middle
Tennessee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  69  84  71 /  20  20  80  70
Clarksville    87  67  82  69 /  30  30  80  70
Crossville     81  62  78  64 /  20  10  80  70
Columbia       87  67  83  69 /  30  30  80  70
Cookeville     83  66  81  66 /  10  10  80  70
Jamestown      81  62  80  64 /  10  10  80  70
Lawrenceburg   86  67  82  69 /  20  20  90  70
Murfreesboro   88  67  84  68 /  20  20  90  70
Waverly        87  67  82  68 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose