Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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544 FXUS64 KOHX 180058 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 758 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Beautiful fall-like evening across the midstate with current temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Considerable cloud cover remains overhead from I-65 eastward this evening in association with an upper level low centered over western North Carolina. Despite the cloud cover, model guidance is very aggressive in developing fog overnight due to the expected low dewpoint depressions - especially over our eastern counties, where the fog could get dense. Also can`t completely rule out a sprinkle or light rain shower on the Plateau in the wraparound moisture from the upper low, but will not include a pop at this time. Forecast has all of this covered and only made minor tweaks to grids and zones. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Not a half bad day out there. Both temperatures and dew points are relatively cool. The Plateau wins for being the coolest with many spots still in the low 60s as we approach the noon hour. This is directly related to the upper level low centered over the TN/GA/NC triple point. Clouds associated with this system continue to stream over our far eastern counties and there were even a couple of pavement wetters on the Upper Cumberland a few hours ago. At this point, if anyone does see light rain over there, it`ll barely be measurable. Similar conditions are likely tomorrow as this upper system will be slow to pull away from Middle TN. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 As we get into Thursday and the upper low moves into the mid- Atlantic seaboard region, upper ridging will replace it across the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. That means dry conditions will continue across the mid-state and temperatures will begin to respond. By Friday and Saturday, afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s for the western 2/3 of the area. However, northerly boundary layer flow will keep dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s, so we`ve got several really nice days ahead. "When are we gonna get some darn rain?", asks the drought-stricken areas of Middle TN. Unfortunately, my answer is the same as it`s been lately -- not for awhile. It could be the middle of next week before any appreciable rainfall returns to the area. That means worsening drought conditions for everyone. Everyone except that guy in Lawrence County who got 8+ inches of rain last weekend from Francine. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions continue for BNA and MQY through this evening. MVFR clouds will move in overnight with patchy fog possible. The current low clouds over CSV and SRB will only drop lower overnight to IFR thresholds with dense fog development likely early Wednesday morning. CKV appears to be just on the cusp of any cloud or vis restrictions due to drier air just off to the NW, so VFR conditions should continue there. Winds will remain out of the N/NE this taf cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 88 67 91 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 62 87 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 59 80 58 84 / 0 20 0 10 Columbia 62 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 81 61 85 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 61 80 60 84 / 10 20 0 10 Lawrenceburg 60 85 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 86 64 91 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 61 86 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett