Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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581 FXUS63 KPAH 131139 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight and Friday afternoon. - Hot and humid Sunday. Heat index values around 100 degrees. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. - A chance of showers and storms is forecast Monday through next Thursday. Very warm and humid. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The warming trend will continue today, as surface high pressure begins to lose its grip on the region. The NBM has consistently been near the high end of guidance the last couple of days and that has verified pretty well. Will stick with it for today with most of the region approaching 90 degrees. Although dewpoints are slowly modifying, they will not have much of an impact on heat indices today. A consistent stream of energy will eventually carve out an upper trough over the Great Lakes tonight. This will help touch off some strong to severe storms to our northwest this afternoon and evening. There is some potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to approach the Quad State generally after midnight tonight. The storms would be running out of instability as they get here, so they should not be severe or make it far into the area. We will continue with 20-30% PoPs across the northern half of the region with the best chances along and north of I-64. Some gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning will be the primary concerns. There is a pretty strong consensus for a dry forecast Friday morning, but not so much so for the afternoon. A weak cold front will be passing through the region through the day and there could be a remnant outflow boundary from the late night storms to help focus convective development in the afternoon. Up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE is possible as lower 70 dewpoints pool over the region. Coverage is likely to be isolated, so we have only slight chance PoPs mainly over the southern half of the area in the afternoon. Shear will be weak, so thunderstorms should be pulsy with some gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning. Surface high pressure will build back over the region for Saturday. That will bring some relief from the building heat and humidity, especially across the north. However, by Sunday, south winds will bring increasing humidity and high pressure aloft will help temperatures soar into the middle 90s. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees over the entire region. The forecast remains dry Sunday, but with the heat and humidity and the tail end of a upper-level disturbance potentially sweeping through the region, a few thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Next week through Thursday continues to look hot and humid in the absence of thunderstorms, as high pressure aloft remains centered just east of the region. Impulses riding north on the west side of the high will attempt to move through the Quad State and bring daily chances of thunderstorms. The ECMWF continues to be stronger with the upper high and therefore keeps the area mostly dry, especially Wednesday into next Thursday. Temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s for highs and the low to mid 70s for lows through the period. Afternoon heat indices will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees each day. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The TAFs are VFR. There is a small chance of some showers or storms reaching KMVN, KEVV, and KOWB after 06Z, but it is too low to mention. An MVFR ceiling cannot be completely ruled out in the last few hours of the forecast at those northern sites. South winds may gust 15-20kts at KMVN for much of the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS