Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
082 AXPQ20 PGUM 270059 TWDPQ Tropical Weather Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1059 AM ChST Thu Jun 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... None. ...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE... Convergent trades are pairing with divergent flow south of an upper- level trough to produce widespread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms, mostly to the northwest of Palau and Yap. Pockets of showers and thunderstorms stretch eastward between 8N and 11N to the south of Guam. This pattern will persist the next couple of days with convection slowly increasing near Palau and Yap as a surface trough develops near or southwest of the two locations. TRADE-WIND TROUGHS... A pair of westward-moving trade-wind troughs are helping to focus showers and thunderstorms near and south of Chuuk and between Kosrae and the Marshall Islands. While these troughs and attendant convection will continue west, satellite-derived precipitable water products show a band of increased moisture between 2N and 10N that will help convection to gradually redevelop over the weekend as the ITCZ becomes more established. UPPER-LEVEL LOW... A large upper-level low is centered north-northwest of the Marianas near 20N149E and is drifting westward. A few short-lived thunderstorms have been flaring up over the far northern Mariana Islands overnight, but are quickly sheared and dissipated due to 20-30 mph upper-level westerlies. Farther north, north of 23N, more widespread heavy thunderstorms are occurring between Minami Tori Shima and Iwo To islands. This low is expected to proceed westward the next few days, weakening slightly, with attendant convection gradually diminishing. $$ Aydlett