Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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383 FXUS64 KSJT 170535 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Most of the state of Texas is between the 500mb subtropical ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge along the middle Atlantic United States coastline. This will provide a shear axis across the central and eastern portions of the state tonight into Monday. The question tonight into early Mon morning is whether any convection will develop across west Texas tonight and propagate into portions of west central Texas similar to last night. The latest HRRR does prog some thunderstorms developing across west Texas this evening and outflow from this convection may provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of the northern Edwards Plateau late tonight into early Monday morning. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southwest portions of the CWA tonight into early Monday as a result. Breezy conditions are expected to prevail tonight into Monday as the pressure gradient remains relatively strong across west Texas. Temperatures will continue to remain above normal Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The focus for the long term continues to be the possibility of heavy rainfall across parts of the area in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe but especially on Thursday. Mainly dry conditions will persist on Tuesday and most of Wednesday although we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to spread into our southeastern counties during the afternoon on Wednesday. We continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico which now has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Whatever ultimately develops will likely move across northern Mexico or south Texas around the middle of the week. Deep easterly flow around this system will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the region, with precipitable water values increasing to as high 1.8-2.0 inches. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday especially south of I-20 as this tropical moisture begins to spread into the region. There are still differences amongst the operational guidance regarding rainfall amounts- the ECMWF continues to hold a stronger ridge over the area shunting most of the tropical moisture to the south while the GFS shows upper level troughing over the area and thus higher rainfall amounts. Given the uncertainty in the ultimate evolution/track of the Gulf system and subsequent rainfall amounts for our area will continue to stick with the model blend for now which shows a 40-50% chance of PoPs in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Please stay tuned as we get a better handle on this potential Gulf of Mexico disturbance and continue to refine rainfall amounts. With the increasing rain chances and expected cloud cover temperatures will be much cooler after Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday though Friday will be mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s. Drier and warmer conditions will return for next weekend as upper level ridging builds back into the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions expected through 09Z. 09Z-15Z, MVFR CIGs around 1500-2500 ft AGL expected to move into an area south and east of roughly a KSJT to KCOM line, impacting KJCT, KSOA and KBBD. Chance that KSJT will get MVFR conditions, but confidence too low to put in TAFs. 15Z today through 06Z Tues, VFR conditions expected. Gusty SE winds expected through 06Z Tues, at generally 12-16 KT with gusts of 18-25 KT, except during the 13Z today to 01Z Tues, when stronger wind speeds of 15-22 KT with gusts of 27-34 KT expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 94 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 99 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 97 74 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 90 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 97 73 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 96 74 95 72 / 20 0 0 0 Brady 92 73 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...SJH