345
FXUS63 KTOP 200545
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, and should come to an
end Thursday.

- Friday looks dry, and heat will begin to build through the
weekend. Above average temperatures through next week.

- Chances for thunderstorms will return Saturday, and off-and-on
storms will persist through the beginning of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

This afternoon, a stationary front that was draped across Kansas was
responsible for continued convection across the region. Cooler
temperatures are filtering in behind the front, and most of the area
is solidly in the 70s. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for heavy
rainfall across the southwestern portion of the area, areas which
received significant rainfall last night. With saturated soils, some
flooding will be possible through the evening hours. The 12Z
sounding from TOP showed a PW value of around 1.8 inches, above the
90th percentile for today.

Overnight, the stationary front will become a warm front and begin
to move to the north. Isolated convection will continue area wide as
the front lifts, but forcing is weak and models do not have a good
handle on where storms are most likely. Because of that uncertainty,
precipitation chances were introduced, but kept low (15-25%). By
tomorrow morning, most of the storms should be mainly north of
Interstate 70, and continue moving north out of the area by the
afternoon.

Warmer air is set to return as the area dries out tomorrow, and
highs between 85-90 degrees should make for a mostly pleasant
afternoon. Given that the forcing has left the area, the chance for
thunderstorms in the afternoon is low. Some models indicate the
chance of widely scattered pulse storms, but opted to keep low
chances (15-20%) contained to the far northeastern corner of Kansas.
There will be around 1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE, but subsidence in the
vertical profile should help to limit convection.

Friday looks dry, as the ridge begins to build in. Temperatures will
reach into the low 90s, and partly cloudy skies will make for a nice
day. Heat indices may reach 100 in some spots, but heat isn`t a big
concern for Friday.

Heat may become more of an issue later on in the forecast period, as
Saturday has forecast heat indices up to 105 degrees in some spots.
Saturday afternoon will also feature another round of storms,
courtesy of a trough in the upper Plains and a draping boundary
across the region. High instability (3000 J/Kg on the NAM) will
support thunderstorms, and effective shear of 30-40 knots may be
enough for potential severe storms, but confidence remains low.

Sunday will bring a brief relief from the excessive heat, though
heat indices will still likely reach 100 across the area. The more
concerning part of the forecast is in the long term, as the forecast
for next week is beginning to show a high heat signal. The NBM shows
heat indices approaching 105 from Monday - Wednesday, with Tuesday
potentially being the hottest. Confidence is increasing in excessive
heat for the first half of next week.

Northeastern Kansas doesn`t look like it will be completely
underneath the ridge, and NW flow could provide ample chances for
thunderstorms through next week. Any storms could provide relief
from the higher temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A few isolated shower may move close to the terminals through
the early morning hours. Most CAMs show stratus with IFR
ceilings moving back in to KTOP and KFOE in the next 2 hours.
The IFR stratus should begin to mix out after 14Z

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Montgomery
AVIATION...Gargan