Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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365 FXUS64 KTSA 171135 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas of dense fog have developed in Carroll county Arkansas and may spread into parts of Madison county early this morning. Thus have issued a dense fog advisory for those two counties until 9 am. Once the fog and low clouds burn off, sunshine will return, allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A warming trend will take place during the rest of the work week, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected by Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds over the area. Afternoon high temperatures may approach the century mark in parts of northeast Oklahoma, with all locations warming well into the 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to remain west of our area through Friday. By the weekend, an upper trough to the west will begin to break down the upper ridge, and low rain chances may return to the northern part of the forecast area. The upper trough looks to move into the central plains by late in the weekend, allowing a cold front to at least approach the area by Sunday night. The ECMWF is now more aggressive than the GFS with the southern push of this boundary and resultant cooler temperatures early next week, which is a flip flop from recent days. For now, will stick close to the NBM showing a much more modest cooldown early next week. More significant rain chances may eventually develop later next week, but this too is highly uncertain and beyond the range of this forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 LIFR to MVFR conditions across much of the region this morning are expected to continue into mid morning before beginning to lift back to VFR. Meanwhile...locations in eastern Oklahoma not currently observing these low conditions could have a period this morning of MVFR ceilings before becoming scattered/broken VFR ceiling late morning/early afternoon. By early afternoon...most locations should have lifted back to scattered/broken VFR. This cloud cover should dissipate by this evening with few/scattered high clouds common for tonight. Winds through the period are forecast to remain between east and southeasterly through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 68 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 86 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 88 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 90 64 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 85 61 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 85 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 86 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 F10 86 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 85 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ002-011. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...20