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766
FXUS61 KBGM 251923
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms pass through overnight
as temperatures remain fairly mild. Conditions may favor scattered
strong thunderstorms over the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Quiet conditions return for the later half of the week with
more seasonable temperatures expected.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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320 PM Update...

While some of the CAMs do bring a line of passing showers this
evening, moisture looks to be limited. Chances will be better for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as an
upper-level trough moves through the region. Instability and shear
will be weak, so no severe storms are expected tonight. Temperatures
will remain mild night, only falling into the 60s.

Wednesday will start out quiet as dry air will be in place. Under
south-southwesterly flow, strong warm air advection will help push
temperatures into the 80s and even the low 90s in some lower
elevations in NEPA. Instability will increase across NEPA and
Catskills by early afternoon but there will not be anything around
to take advantage of it. As the day progresses, instability greatly
increases south of the region while remaining steady or even
decreasing during the afternoon. Still, MLCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg will be possible across the Wyoming Valley. Bulk shear in the 0-
6km layer will be 30 to 40 kts. Lapse rates in the lower levels will
be fairly steep, but that will not be the case in the mid-levels.
Based on how models look now, conditions do look more marginal than
previous runs and we have seen SPC shift south with their outlooks.
There is still a slight risk for severe weather across most of NEPA
and the Catskills, this risk could continue to shift south if models
continue to keep the best conditions south. Short-range guidance is
a bit delayed with bringing precipitation in ahead of a cold front
and very few show much in the way for convective showers. Still,
with PWATs up to 1.75 inches, heavier showers may be possible. There
is some uncertainty on how conditions will play out tomorrow based
on the location of a warm front, but a slight shift north or south
could change what the region sees.

Showers will continue into the late evening hours. Lingering
thunderstorms may also be possible. The majority of the showers will
be through the region prior sunrise Thursday morning. Cooler air
will filter in behind the passing showers, allowing temps to drop
into the mid 50s and low 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

Cold front continues to move through Wednesday night as surface low
pressure system tracks east. The track of the low will determine the
amount of instability that will be present overnight. At this time
model guidance suggests conditions will wind down with some elevated
instability lingering. Therefore rain showers are mainly expected
with possible elevated thunderstorms. Behind the front temperatures
will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight. As the upper level
trough tracks east model guidance shows a potential wave of moisture
moving through on Thursday. This may allow the chances for some
showers to continue through Thursday morning although NBM kept
conditions dry for now. Otherwise better chances for dry conditions
is Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper level ridge attempts to
build in with high pressure at the surface. Temperatures are
expected to range in the 70s for CNY with some areas in NEPA
climbing into the low 80s. With clear skies temperatures overnight
will fall into the upper 40s to low mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 AM Update...

High pressure centers over our region on Friday allowing calm and
dry conditions to continue. Another system approaches from the west
just in time for the weekend as upper level trough dips into our
area. This increases chances for showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday, possibly into Monday as well if upper trough is slow to move
out. Upper ridge and surface high looks to build back in on Tuesday
with drier conditions returning. Temperatures during this period are
expected to range in the 70s to mid 80s during the day with
overnight lows fluctuating with some nights in the 50s and some in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminal over the next 24
hours. There may be brief periods of MVFR ceilings at ELM, ITH,
and SYR around 09z on Wednesday. Due to low confidence, this was
added in as a Tempo group. There is a chance for scattered
showers between 03 and 09z, but due to the limited coverage,
there was not mention of showers with this update.

A brief period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be possible
at most CNY terminals beginning around 03z. Direction will be
southwesterly at 40 kts. At the surface, gusty winds will remain
present but become calmer overnight. Wind direction will
fluctuate between west and southwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Evening through Wednesday Night...Restrictions
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL