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FXUS64 KBRO 141741 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

With the mid-level ridge in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley, hot and largely rain free conditions are expected for
most of the short term forecast period. It is possible that a
seabreeze could bring in some showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that could happen. However,
tomorrow, there is a a better chance that the seabreeze could see
isolated showers and thunderstorms could appear as it moves
inland.

As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to be in the range
of the upper 90s for most of the region, while parts of Zapata and
Starr are in the triple digits for today and tomorrow. The heat
indices are largely expected to be in the range of 105-110 degrees
this afternoon and tomorrow. Although a short period of 111 is
possible, a Heat Advisory is not likely at this time. The overnight
lows for tonight are expected to be in the range upper 70s to low
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

This portion of the total forecast is highly dependent on the
future development and movement of a tropical system that may
develop in the Bay of Campeche around Tuesday. At a minimum, deep
tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values between 2
and nearly 3 inches, will flux into the BRO CWFA from the Bay of
Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a
steadily-increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
initially isolated to scattered convection over the eastern
portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually
transitioning to scattered to numerous activity across the whole
of the area by the end of the long term period. With the exception
of the northern halves of Brooks County, Jim Hogg County, and
Zapata County, where no drought exists, the latest drought map
indicates Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions over the
remainder of the inland portion of the BRO CWFA. Aforementioned
substantial rains, if they materialize, will have the possibility
of ending any and all drought within the region by the time of
their conclusion.

Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs, not surprisingly,
will be cooled to below normal levels courtesy of increased cloud
cover and the significant chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Although heat indices may result in a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Sunday through Tuesday, a HEAT ADVISORY is not forecast for any of
those days, with heat indices continuing to decline on Wednesday
and Thursday.

Additionally, with elevated seas anticipated along the Lower Texas
Coast (please see the MARINE section below), an elevated risk of
rip currents (MODERATE or HIGH), COASTAL FLOOD products (ADVISORY
or WARNING), and HIGH SURF products (ADVISORY or WARNING) are
likely to be needed at the local beaches, possibly commencing on
Monday or Tuesday.

Finally, some model guidance suggests that a more organized
tropical system will move across the Yucatan Peninsula around June
21st and approach the mouth of the Rio Grande River around June
23rd. Given the amount of time yet to pass, nothing definite is
laid in stone, so will simply have to monitor this concern as the
second week of June becomes the third.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are being observed across the region and are
expected to persist through Saturday. Daytime cumulus field
between 3-6K feet to clear east to west after 20Z with clear
skies overnight and early morning. Can not rule out a stray shower
or even a rouge thunderstorm along the sea breeze, but probability
remain at 10 percent today and Saturday. Easterly winds remain
light with brief gustiness between 20-24Z as the sea breeze front
moves inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Favorable conditions are expected to persist through Saturday, as
a weak pressure gradient allows for light to moderate winds and
low to moderate seas. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible through Saturday, and locally elevated seas and winds are
possible with these showers and thunderstorms.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
This portion of the marine forecast is highly dependent on the
future development and movement of a tropical system that may
develop in the Bay of Campeche around Tuesday. If model guidance
is to believed, Small Craft Advisory conditions, at a minimum, are
possible along the Lower Texas Coast beginning Monday night,
especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical
miles offshore. Mariners are advised to monitor the Coastal Waters
Forecast through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROWNSVILLE             98  80  96  80 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN               98  76  97  75 /  10   0  10  10
MCALLEN                101  78  99  78 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        101  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  88  83 /  20  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  80  92  80 /  20  10  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...59-GB