-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
379
FXUS62 KCAE 230557
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of
next week. Heat Advisories may be possible from Monday through
Wednesday. Expect scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms for much of the short and long term forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGE:

- Scattered showers lingering into this evening

An area of scattered showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm,
has moved northwestward with the mean low level southeasterly
flow late this afternoon and into the early evening hours, most
places will remain dry or will only get a brief trace of rain,
but a few lucky folks will get a little more. A deep layer of
mid level dry air is prevented greater coverage in an otherwise
favorable atmosphere. The activity will diminish in coverage
through late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat building into Monday
- Afternoon/Evening showers and thunderstorms will remain widely
  scattered with best chances in the east

A northwest flow aloft is expected early next week with a
strong upper level trough moving through New England and high
pressure aloft over the Southern Plains and Mid South.
Downsloping off the Appalachian Mountains should limit the
diurnal convective potential and also lead to hot daytime
temperatures due to compression.

The competing factor is tropical moisture advected into the region
from an easterly wave. The best chance for convection should be near
the sea breeze front in the lower CSRA and eastern Midlands. The 12Z
CAMS do not depict anything more than isolated coverage and dry
air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.

Highs are forecast to be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees each
day with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices are expected to
be in the 100 to 105 degree range during peak heating each day which
is just below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot even by local standards Tuesday and Wednesday
- Best chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday.

High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.S. during the middle
of next week. An upper level trough passes well to the north of the
region in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame which pushes a
surface front into the Carolinas. There is a good probability that
this front becomes diffuse over the region given the late June
climatology and the ensemble forecasts. Thursday appears to be the
most likely day to experience a higher chance of diurnal convection
due to this diffuse frontal boundary. Otherwise isolated to
scattered diurnal convection is anticipated through the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Restrictions are once again expected during the early morning
and sunrise hours Sunday.

Low ceilings have developed along the coast and will continue to
moves inland over the next several hours. Current observations
indicate ceilings are mostly MVFR. As a result have continued to
bring in MVFR ceilings at all terminals over the next couple
hours. There remains a possibility of brief IFR ceilings but
based on model trends and current observations, think that the
probability is low. Low clouds will scour out after sunrise with
cumulus field developing around 5kft. Winds will generally be
lighter today out of the SSW around 5 knots. Showers and
thunderstorm coverage will be isolated this afternoon, so left
out any mention from TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Monday through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$