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144
FXUS61 KCAR 211323
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
923 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today. Low pressure will
approach on Saturday and track north of our area Sunday. A cold front
will cross the area Monday followed by high pressure building
into the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:23 AM Update...Latest observations have light rain falling in
Frenchville. Based on this and radar trends, added in isolated
showers for the Crown of Maine for the next few hours. Also
added isolated showers for southwestern Hancock County based on
radar through midday. Will continue to monitor the progress of
these showers.


Previous Discussion...
Showers will be coming to an end this morning across the
Downeast and Central Highlands. The 500mb ridge has flatten
across Maine with the front slowly sagging south over the Gulf
of Maine. Drier air continues to work southward and pushing out
the muggy weather that was trapped Downeast. Expecting a
generally mix of sun and clouds today across the area with an
elongated shortwave transitioning the 500mb flow. At this point
expecting that to remain mainly dry with no precip risk. Highs
top out in the low 80s (80-83F) across the Central Highlands and
Downeast coast just away from the immediate shoreline. Upper 60s
to 70s for the areas at the immediate coastline. Across Northern
Areas expect mid to upper 70s. Light N-NW winds today generally
less than 10mph. Tonight, a weak warm front will be lifting
north through Maine. Timing has it pushing into our CWA by
daybreak on Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered showers
develop with increasing cloud cover. Lows tonight in the low to
mid 50s north, upper 50s to near 60F for the Central Highlands
and Downeast coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There are model differences which make the forecast for the weekend
a challenge.  Low pressure in the western Great Lakes Saturday
morning will move east with a warm front setting up south of the
area. This front is expected to lift north over the weekend.
The GFS is by far the most aggressive on Saturday in trying to
develop rain across much of the FA with the exception of the far
north. Most of the other operational models would keep most of
the area dry with perhaps a few showers Downeast. As the warm
front lifts north Saturday night and Sunday rain chances
increase across the entire FA. The GFS appears to again be the
odd model out keeping most of the north dry, while other models
and model ensembles would point toward the best chance of more
significant rain across the north. Given that there remains a
moderate to high level of uncertainty will stick fairly close
to the ongoing forecast which brings rain north Saturday night
with rain across the FA Sunday with a slight chance of thunder
Sunday afternoon. Confidence on heavy rain/flooding still
remains low despite much of the north in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall per WPC. Inverted temperature highs on
Saturday with the warmest temperatures across the far north due
to lower shower chances and likely more breaks of sun. Highs on
Sunday will likely not get out of the 60s in most areas with
thicker cloud cover and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It likely remains unsettled into Monday with a cold front to cross
the area sometime during the day with a continued chance of
showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms. It looks likely
that ridging builds back in Tuesday with drier weather. The
next weather system moves in from the west on Wednesday with an
increasing chance of showers and possible afternoon
thunderstorms. A cold front will likely cross the area Wednesday
night or Thursday, but the timing remains highly uncertain this
far out. Temperatures will be a bit above average with the
warmest days likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although above
average, it will not be anywhere near as hot or humid as the
past couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs. N-NW winds 5-15kt. Tonight generally VFR
cigs. Light and variable winds. VCSH/-SHRA possible by 12z
tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: Saturday: VFR with the chance of MVFR ceilings at
KBHB in the afternoon. S/SW wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night and Sunday: Ceilings lowering to MVFR from south to
north in rain with the potential for IFR ceilings late Saturday
night and Sunday. S/SE wind 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night and Monday: MVFR with IFR possible at times in
rain Sunday night and showers Monday. Chance of thunderstorms
from KBGR north Monday afternoon. S/SW wind 5 to 10 knots. The
wind may shift into the N/NE from KHUL north Monday afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday: MVFR Monday night will improve to VFR
on Tuesday. N/NW wind 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Morning fog may reduce vsby at times with showers
ending. Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tonight. N-NE
winds this morning shifting S-SW this afternoon then light and
variable tonight. Seas subsiding to 1-2ft today and becoming 1ft
or less tonight.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through Sunday, but seas will begin to slowly build
during the day Sunday.  Potential for SCA level seas on the coastal
waters by later Sunday night through Monday, and possibly into
Monday night. It looks marginal with combined seas and a south
swell building to around 5 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Clark/Sinko/CB
Marine...Clark/Sinko/CB