-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
690
FXUS61 KCAR 192227
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
627 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will
build down from Eastern Canada Friday into the weekend while
low pressure remains well off the coast. High pressure will
remain over and northeast of the area into the middle of next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Update...
A backdoor cold front will cross the region tonight. High
pressure centered near Labrador will begin to ridge south across
the forecast area later tonight, while a slow moving ocean low
remains southeast of New England. Isolated showers will occur
with the cold front early tonight. Isolated showers on the
northern edge of the precipitation shield of the ocean low could
then clip the Downeast coast overnight. Otherwise, generally
expect mostly/partly cloudy skies tonight. However, upsloping
east/northeast winds should also help produce mostly
cloudy/cloudy skies across the higher terrain of the
west-central highlands of the forecast area later tonight. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 50 to the mid 50s
north, to the mid to upper 50s Downeast. Have updated to adjust
for current conditions along with expected overnight
temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
The large low pressure system over the waters will continue to
influence the region to the south as the low becomes fairly
stationary due to the upper level ridge. Kept isolated showers
across coastal Downeast Friday, mainly over Hancock county due
to the NE flow. Temps will be much cooler with the NE flow and
cooler airmass. Expect low 70s across the region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The area will remain between high pressure to the northeast over
the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and an area of low pressure southeast
of southern New England. High pressure will slowly drift south
over the rest of the area by the end of the weekend. Initially,
showers will remain possible along the southernmost coastal
areas and islands, with clearing expected later in the weekend.
Northern Maine will remain partly to mostly clear and dry. With
a cooler air mass in place, clearing and light winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s across the north
each night, with patchy river valley fog developing and
dissipating during the early morning hours. High temperatures
will be much cooler than the previous week, but still near to
above normal, ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
much of the period as anomalously high heights persist across
eastern Canada, favoring surface high pressure across the
region. Recent guidance has delayed any chance of precipitation
to at least Wednesday, with most models holding off until
Thursday as an upper level trough is projected to cross the
Northeastern US.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally VFR across northern areas tonight through
Friday, though occasional MVFR ceilings possible later tonight
through early Friday. Isolated showers early. Across Downeast
areas, VFR early tonight then VFR/MVFR overnight through early
Friday with IFR also possible along the Downeast coast.
Isolated showers tonight into Friday. VFR Downeast Friday
afternoon. Across northern areas, east/northeast winds 5 to 10
knots tonight through Friday. Across Downeast areas
east/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots
overnight. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots Friday.

SHORT TERM: Friday night to Tuesday: Predominantly VFR. Brief
reductions to IFR or lower are possible in patchy river valley
fog, primarily at northern airports such as PQI. A short period
of MVFR is also possible Sunday morning with
cumulus/stratocumulus development. Winds will be strongest
Saturday and Sunday afternoons with NE gusts to around 15 kts
possible at BGR and BHB. Otherwise, light winds are expected
through Tuesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, from
midnight tonight through Friday. Patchy fog through early
morning. Isolated/scattered showers tonight through Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds will gradually subside below advisory levels
over the outer waters Friday night into Saturday, but seas of 4
to 6 feet may persist, especially over southern portions of the
waters. Conditions subside below advisory levels across all
waters by Sunday as high pressure builds across the waters.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with a modest storm surge from
low pressure to the south will lead to minor tidal flooding at
the high tides around 1 PM Friday and 1PM Saturday. The
southernmost east facing islands and peninsulas will be most
subject to erosion, but most areas will see little wave action
due to the wind direction relative to the coastline. Areas
further south along the Maine coast into southern New England
will have a greater coastal flooding threat with more onshore
flow.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...Norcross/MStrauser
Marine...Norcross/MStrauser
Tides/Coastal Flooding...MStrauser